Oddsfor Zambians to win a green card for DV 2009?

[starfleet_hq]

Dear All

Does anyone know what the odds are if i entered the DV 2009 for Zambian??


Please help

[sakura]

Dear All

Does anyone know what the odds are if i entered the DV 2009 for Zambian??


Please help

You're talking about probability here: no one, not even the US government, knows. It's called a LOTTERY for a reason.

[Marco 72]

If your submission is valid and the lottery is fair, then the odds of winning are 50,000 divided by the total number of submissions. For years there have been rumors that the DV lottery is "biased" in some way or other (e.g. in favour of people who are already working in the US) but it's impossible to know whether this is true or not.

[JAJ]

If your submission is valid and the lottery is fair, then the odds of winning are 50,000 divided by the total number of submissions. For years there have been rumors that the DV lottery is "biased" in some way or other (e.g. in favour of people who are already working in the US) but it's impossible to know whether this is true or not.

Quote from Carl Shusterman (prominent attorney):
http://immigration.about.com/library/we ... 22303a.htm

Question #6: Do you know what the statistical chances of winning are? Are they the same for every entrant? Or do they vary by country of origin?

Carl Shusterman: The chances of winning the lottery vary according to the continent in which you were born, your country of chargeability, and how many other people apply for the lottery from your region or area. For example, approximately 80% of the lottery winners will be persons who were born in Europe or Africa. Persons who were born in Asia or Central and South America have a much smaller chance of being chosen. In addition, no country can have more than 3500 people immigrate through the visa lottery within a given year. This means that if you are chosen as a "winner," this does not necessarily mean that you will achieve permanent residence. For example, if the State Department chooses 5,000 "winners" from your country, you must be among the first 3500 to immigrate. If you and your spouse are born in different countries, you may wish to choose the country where you would have the best chance of immigrating through the lottery. If you were born in Japan, and your wife was born in France, you can both apply for the lottery under the French quota and increase your chances of obtaining permanent residence dramatically.

[sakura]

If your submission is valid and the lottery is fair, then the odds of winning are 50,000 divided by the total number of submissions. For years there have been rumors that the DV lottery is "biased" in some way or other (e.g. in favour of people who are already working in the US) but it's impossible to know whether this is true or not.

Quote from Carl Shusterman (prominent attorney):
http://immigration.about.com/library/we ... 22303a.htm

Question #6: Do you know what the statistical chances of winning are? Are they the same for every entrant? Or do they vary by country of origin?

Carl Shusterman: The chances of winning the lottery vary according to the continent in which you were born, your country of chargeability, and how many other people apply for the lottery from your region or area. For example, approximately 80% of the lottery winners will be persons who were born in Europe or Africa. Persons who were born in Asia or Central and South America have a much smaller chance of being chosen. In addition, no country can have more than 3500 people immigrate through the visa lottery within a given year. This means that if you are chosen as a "winner," this does not necessarily mean that you will achieve permanent residence. For example, if the State Department chooses 5,000 "winners" from your country, you must be among the first 3500 to immigrate. If you and your spouse are born in different countries, you may wish to choose the country where you would have the best chance of immigrating through the lottery. If you were born in Japan, and your wife was born in France, you can both apply for the lottery under the French quota and increase your chances of obtaining permanent residence dramatically.

Surely that's because so many countries in Asia and Central/South America just don't qualify? e.g. China, India, Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, etc. So the odds would be higher for the whole of Africa simply because they don't send as many migrants as these other regions, and all African countries qualify. So that wouldn't prove that a Zambian has a good chance (the OP's question). Judging by the number of applicants from Africa, it seems Nigerians, South Africans, Kenyans and I think Egyptians have a better 'chance' because there are far more applications from those countries. Just a numbers game...

[starfleet_hq]

So the odds would be higher for the whole of Africa simply because they don't send as many migrants as these other regions, and all African countries qualify. So that wouldn't prove that a Zambian has a good chance (the OP's question). Judging by the number of applicants from Africa, it seems Nigerians, South Africans, Kenyans and I think Egyptians have a better 'chance' because there are far more applications from those countries. Just a numbers game...[/quote]

Would this mean as Zambia have fewer I think the last 2 years they have had about 130ish per year obtain a green card, they possibly would have a better chance or is it that because so many are issued for nigeria or Egypt they actually lower the chances for other African countries???

[sakura]

Would this mean as Zambia have fewer I think the last 2 years they have had about 130ish per year obtain a green card, they possibly would have a better chance or is it that because so many are issued for nigeria or Egypt they actually lower the chances for other African countries???

It's a lottery. If we had a lottery, and I applied 100 times, and you applied only 1 time, what is the chance/probability of you winning, and me not being selected? No one knows. It's just a random selection. No one can tell you so there's no way of knowing and there's no way of 'improving' your chances. You just apply and wait. Like the 5 million other people!

No one has a 'better chance' - no individual applicant can be favoured. No one Zambian has a better chance than another Zambian or other national. Do you play the lottery!?

[Administrator]

.

The lottery is run by computer selection. Let us assume it is totally random and not consider some conspiracy theory regarding the software favoring any particular nationalities ...


50,000 green cards will be granted.

More than 50,000 applications will be selected initially because it is known that quite a number of applications will fail for some reason or another.

So, let us also assume that your applications are correct and that if selected they will pass evaluation.


Now, let us assume that 5 million applications are made (THEORETICAL ASSUMPTION to make the math easy).

5,000,000 ÷ 50,000 = 1 : 100 chances "over all."

However, the odds are slightly better than that of initially being selected.

I don't know how many initial applications are selected for evaluation. But, if we assume a failure rate of 20% (maybe conservative), then 60,000 would initially selected, making the odds 1 : 83 of being selected.


I suspect, but I do not know, that the 3,500 rule cited above for the numbers from a particular country probably apply to the same principle.

3,500 × 20% (MERELY an EXAMPLE) = 4200 maximum selected from any particular country, with only the first 3500 that are processed & granted being allowed.

So long as your country of origin submits under ~4200 applications (AGAIN, ONLY an EXAMPLE), then your odds should remain at just about 1 : 83 of being selected for evaluation/interview.

If your country of origin submits above the threshold, then your odds decrease.


Now, conversely, if another country submits oh, say 200,000 applications, then about 193,000 of those applications will not be part of the original selection pool .. thus increasing your personal chances if your country is under threshold.

For this example, estimating in your favor, it would then (THEORETICALLY) be about 4,800,000 ÷ 60,000 = 1 : 80 for initial selection.


The exact numbers depend upon

1) exactly how many total applications are submitted


2) the "selection threshold" for failed applications above the 50,000 that will be granted

3) the total applications submitted from your country

4 ) IF THERE IS a country threshold (it SEEMS there SHOULD be), then does your country exceed the selection threshold & by how much

and,

5) if the THEORETICAL country selection threshold exists, then how many other countries exceed theirs and by what margins.


Final Answer: every single entry has a slightly better than 1 in 100 chance for initial selection based upon 5 million applications being submitted.


Do not anybody forget ... IF you submit more than one application per person, you will be disqualified from the lottery.

A spouse may apply, and their spouse can be on that application as a spouse. Meaning, there are two opportunities for each married couple. Each application has the same odds of being selected ... you do not "double" your chances for any one application, although you would get two opportunities to "throw the dice."

the Admin

[starfleet_hq]

Does anybody haow applications are submitted for Zambia evry year.

50000 available, do they actually allocate a certain number per region or by country. So for example Africa have say 100000 and these are split wihin all the countries.

Or is the selection process irrespective of where the application is from.

[Rambo]

Does anybody haow applications are submitted for Zambia evry year.

50000 available, do they actually allocate a certain number per region or by country. So for example Africa have say 100000 and these are split wihin all the countries.

Or is the selection process irrespective of where the application is from.

Each continent is alloted a certain number, Africa and Europe get the most. Asia gets around 12,000.

So as a Zambian entry you compete with all applicants from African countries.

Two things are important, you need to win a number which is low enough to guarantee you an interview. For this you compete with all African entrants.

Secondly you need to be under the threshold of your own country Zambia. The threshold is around 3500 per country.

So whether you finally get a green card depends both on how many people from Africa apply and also how many people from your own country Zambia apply.

Just winning a high number visa is of no use, as all visa places will be taken up before it is time to call your number. Lower numbers are processed first.

They pick twice as many numbers as there are places.

For example visa number for Asia can go as high as 12000, but for an Asian to have a real chance to get a green card they need to win a visa number below 8000.

You can check to see which visa numbers are currently being called up month by month here:

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulle ... _3761.html

As you can see for October this year, DV 2008, those with African winning visa numbers upto 6700 are being called for interview. So you can see the importance of winning one of the lower visa numbers. The higher your winning number the less likely you will have a chance to claim a green card, as they issue twice as many winning numbers as there are green cards available.

You can also see that the last remaining interviews for DV 2007 are for those with winning visa numbers below 20,700 for Nigeria , below 23,900 for Egypt and below 16,000 for Ethiopia.

So if you had a winning number of 25,000 as a Nigerian you would never get a green card. Or if you had a winning number of 17,000 as an Ethiopian you would never get a green card.

[starfleet_hq]

Secondly you need to be under the threshold of your own country Zambia. The threshold is around 3500 per country.

So whether you finally get a green card depends both on how many people from Africa apply and also how many people from your own country Zambia apply.

Thanks Rambo

Judging by previous years it doesn't seem that many people apply I think it has been more than a 1000 a year. But then I could be wrong