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shannon5g wrote:Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.
Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.
The UK govt set this scoring system to limit immigration to its political target, so they do not care at all what the immigrants would feel. They set the minimum at 32 to limit low paid workers, not because they want everyone over 32 to come. They do not feel they have the responsibility to take care of all the applications. On the contrary, they are happy to see the burden is shifted to the companies, which will force them to back out and follow the govt's further tightened immigration policy.didi_tier2 wrote:shannon5g wrote:Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.
Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.
Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.
I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.
If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x
shannon5g wrote:The UK govt set this scoring system to limit immigration to its political target, so they do not care at all what the immigrants would feel. They set the minimum at 32 to limit low paid workers, not because they want everyone over 32 to come. They do not feel they have the responsibility to take care of all the applications. On the contrary, they are happy to see the burden is shifted to the companies, which will force them to back out and follow the govt's further tightened immigration policy.didi_tier2 wrote:shannon5g wrote:Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.
Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.
Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.
I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.
If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x
didi_tier2 wrote:shannon5g wrote:Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.
Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.
Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.
I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.
If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x
1215=50+ in Juneks227 wrote:didi_tier2 wrote:shannon5g wrote:Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.
Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.
Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.
I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.
If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. (Please explain this figures how did you get exact number of applications for June and July , HO never publishes the number of application for particular points) ?
I am still waitingvizard wrote:Anyone still waiting to hear from pwc legal?
Still waiting....ITConsultant2015 wrote:I am still waitingvizard wrote:Anyone still waiting to hear from pwc legal?
Yes, Most student graduates in June July in England, I graduated in July myself , But that's the thing students do not apply for job when they graduate they apply months before and most get their decision even before they graduate with starting dates in August September. If starting dates are in August September it is obvious they will make an application for RCoS in June July respectively. That is my reasoning behind why June July are peak periods for RCoS applications. And the current trends we are seeing is not permanent. I hope i am right.ktyagi wrote:I agree with KS227, won't this period also coincide with the fact that majority of people graduate from universities and are applying for jobs?
But is it not true that Students on a Tier 4 visa, applying to switch to a Tier 2 visa don't need an RCoS ?ks227 wrote:Yes, Most student graduates in June July in England, I graduated in July myself , But that's the thing students do not apply for job when they graduate they apply months before and most get their decision even before they graduate with starting dates in August September. If starting dates are in August September it is obvious they will make an application for RCoS in June July respectively. That is my reasoning behind why June July are peak periods for RCoS applications. And the current trends we are seeing is not permanent. I hope i am right.ktyagi wrote:I agree with KS227, won't this period also coincide with the fact that majority of people graduate from universities and are applying for jobs?
winteriscoming wrote:But is it not true that Students on a Tier 4 visa, applying to switch to a Tier 2 visa don't need an RCoS ?ks227 wrote:Yes, Most student graduates in June July in England, I graduated in July myself , But that's the thing students do not apply for job when they graduate they apply months before and most get their decision even before they graduate with starting dates in August September. If starting dates are in August September it is obvious they will make an application for RCoS in June July respectively. That is my reasoning behind why June July are peak periods for RCoS applications. And the current trends we are seeing is not permanent. I hope i am right.ktyagi wrote:I agree with KS227, won't this period also coincide with the fact that majority of people graduate from universities and are applying for jobs?
I thought RCoS was only for out of country applications.
they are total number of RCoS granted (Including exceptional consideration + Croatians Nation ) but yeah we can look at this as an average indication. The only thing i want to add up that it assumes that hiring in UK still at that peak level as it was in June and July (and remember June and July are peak hiring periods and those selected in June July start work in August and September therefore August September are peak starting dates) , means it is likely the trends of hiring should stop or slow down by now that could result in demands for RCoS going down in RCoS which means higher chances for 32-40 where 40 seems optimistic.[/quote]ks227 wrote:1215=50+ in June
1943=50+ in July + 45 new in July + 45 reapplied from June
I assume everyone at 45 rejected in June reapplied in July, so 1215+1943=45+ in June and July
Does that make sense?
Darn!! I have been worrying un-necessarily over the last 2 months. Well as a positive side effect, I followed this forum and that really is very useful to educate oneself about the situation.Tier 4 Students almost certainly get Unrestricted CoS allocated to them, on which there is no monthly limit.
Hence, graduates would not be part of the June & July peak demands witnessed, although they are still probably the busiest hiring months.
ktyagi wrote:Darn!! I have been worrying un-necessarily over the last 2 months. Well as a positive side effect, I followed this forum and that really is very useful to educate oneself about the situation.Tier 4 Students almost certainly get Unrestricted CoS allocated to them, on which there is no monthly limit.
Hence, graduates would not be part of the June & July peak demands witnessed, although they are still probably the busiest hiring months.
Me too. Still waiting!Monika_tyagi wrote:Still waiting....ITConsultant2015 wrote:I am still waitingvizard wrote:Anyone still waiting to hear from pwc legal?
It does not have to be on JobCentre , Employers can advertise on their own career website , In My case Job is advertise on my Employer's career website and my RLMT is completed.Mattyhazza wrote:Just wondering, Does anyone know if it is possible to meet the RLMT requirements without advertising on Jobcentre Plus Universal Jobmatch service? I'm not sure if my work has done it and they refuse to talk to a consultant. So Frustrating