Re: Restricted COS decisions for August 2015

ks227 · Post by **ks227** » Mon Jul 20, 2015 6:25 pm

With points 45, according to all sorts of analysis and predictions there should be no problem at all

Dancingjuice9 · Post by **Dancingjuice9** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 1:59 am

Reapply@40

Anyone else sharing your point for next round rcos allocation, please?

Really hope this time it works...My last chance definitely

tier2sp · Post by **tier2sp** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 4:44 pm

ks227 wrote:The spike in summer times is analysied by the previous years data from archived UKVI RCoS Data, someone in the July RCoS thread has posted links and graphs for that data indicating April , june and july as peak trends usually.

does anyone have hope for cutoff being 40 or less? the bracket for 40 points is (£28 - £32k) and a much wider point bracket for 45 (£32 - £46k) so wouldn't there be much fewer applicants within the lower points bracket which means fewer CoS to cover all of those within the lower salary range brackets.

sparobixcg · Post by **sparobixcg** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 5:16 pm

Has anyone had any issues with their labor market test not having a maximum salary advertised? My employer had advertised a salary as being dependent on experience - so there was a minimum figure given but the final amount would be negotiable for the right person. When it comes to the amount listed on the certificate of sponsorship though, if the salary is say 5k higher than the minimum figure advertised, would that still be acceptable?

ks227 · Post by **ks227** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 6:02 pm

tier2sp wrote:
ks227 wrote:The spike in summer times is analysied by the previous years data from archived UKVI RCoS Data, someone in the July RCoS thread has posted links and graphs for that data indicating April , june and july as peak trends usually.
does anyone have hope for cutoff being 40 or less? the bracket for 40 points is (£28 - £32k) and a much wider point bracket for 45 (£32 - £46k) so wouldn't there be much fewer applicants within the lower points bracket which means fewer CoS to cover all of those within the lower salary range brackets.

There certainly are hopes (there were hopes in July as well ) but the trends are such it is almost impossible to predict the number of RCoS in any given month. The point 45 bracket is higher which means a lot of applications for 45 , that means the higher the applications above 40 points the lesser the chances for 40 points

Ln1124 · Post by **Ln1124** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:24 pm

I am applying this August and after reading your posts from previous months, I just realized that the job advert my employer posted did not include salary range and closing date. They just said "competitive rate of pay". Do you guys think there would be a problem? Now I have double worries, both the points and the RLMT.

ks227 · Post by **ks227** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:33 pm

Ln1124 wrote:I am applying this August and after reading your posts from previous months, I just realized that the job advert my employer posted did not include salary range and closing date. They just said "competitive rate of pay". Do you guys think there would be a problem? Now I have double worries, both the points and the RLMT.

The advertisement must include the following:
the job title
the main duties and responsibilities of the job (the job description)
the location of the job
an indication of the salary package or salary range or terms on offer
the skills, qualifications and experience needed
the closing date for applications, unless the job is part of a rolling recruitment programme (in which case the advertisement should state the period of the recruitment programme)

Shortage Occupations
You do not need to advertise a positon if the job is on the shortage occupation list

http://www.ed.ac.uk/schools-departments ... our-market

Ln1124 · Post by **Ln1124** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 7:54 pm

Thanks ks227. I don't know if they can do anything at this point to fix the job advert and still be able to apply for this month.

I already told them to include the salary range and closing date but for some reason, they took it out when posted it.

nasmc92 · Post by **nasmc92** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 10:14 pm

Tier 2 (General) extension

Same employer
same job and same soc
no changes

Job SOC: 2124
Salary 32000

how many points points will I get for my COS ?

Please can some one let me know

cstylishsam · Post by **cstylishsam** » Tue Jul 21, 2015 11:29 pm

nasmc92 wrote:Tier 2 (General) extension

Same employer
same job and same soc
no changes

Job SOC: 2124
Salary 32000

how many points points will I get for my COS ?

Please can some one let me know

For extensions you would have to request for unrestricted CoS. There is no limit or cap for these CoS and can be requested by your sponsor provided he has CoS already allocated to the company for this FY.

The thread is for restricted CoS

Shah1698 · Post by **Shah1698** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 2:05 pm

Ln1124 wrote:I am applying this August and after reading your posts from previous months, I just realized that the job advert my employer posted did not include salary range and closing date. They just said "competitive rate of pay". Do you guys think there would be a problem? Now I have double worries, both the points and the RLMT.

Hi - It is accepted by UKVI. When they make RCoS application, they just have to mention the salary on the offer.

GettingTier2 · Post by **GettingTier2** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:47 pm

Tier 2 Restricted COS Allocation Details from July 2014 to June 2015.

Someone made a FOI request and I have been following that. It turns out that the Home Office replied after 20 days.

All the data is here for the Gurus to analyse and speculate the CoS allocation for August 2015. Unfortunately it does not contain the data for July 2015, otherwise it would be perfect.

Summary for June 2015:
1325 applications rejected in total (527 at 45 pts, 246 at 40 pts, 61 at 39 pts, 35 at 38 pts and etc...see xls for details)
2 were granted at 45 points.
1226 applications with 50 points and above were granted, which we had known

Summary for July 2014 ~ June 2015:
Most applications clustered between 40 to 50. (On average, 174 at 40 pts, 406 at 45 pts, 308 at 50 pts and 1427 with 40 points or more)

If you plot them, the distribution is very skewed.
I think the numbers are pretty much close to what other members have deducted above.

Good luck to everyone and share your thoughts!

Ref:https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... ificate_al

cstylishsam · Post by **cstylishsam** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:11 pm

GettingTier2 wrote:Tier 2 Restricted COS Allocation Details from July 2014 to June 2015.

Someone made a FOI request and I have been following that. It turns out that the Home Office replied after 20 days.

All the data is here for the Gurus to analyse and speculate the CoS allocation for August 2015. Unfortunately it does not contain the data for July 2015, otherwise it would be perfect.

Summary for June 2015:
1325 applications rejected in total (527 at 45 pts, 246 at 40 pts, 61 at 39 pts, 35 at 38 pts and etc...see xls for details)
2 were granted at 45 points.
1226 applications with 50 points and above were granted, which we had known

Summary for July 2014 ~ June 2015:
Most applications clustered between 40 to 50. (On average, 174 at 40 pts, 406 at 45 pts, 308 at 50 pts and 1427 with 40 points or more)

If you plot them, the distribution is very skewed.
I think the numbers are pretty much close to what other members have deducted above.

Good luck to everyone and share your thoughts!

Ref:https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... ificate_al

Thanks

Ln1124 · Post by **Ln1124** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:15 pm

Shah1698 wrote:
Ln1124 wrote:I am applying this August and after reading your posts from previous months, I just realized that the job advert my employer posted did not include salary range and closing date. They just said "competitive rate of pay". Do you guys think there would be a problem? Now I have double worries, both the points and the RLMT.

Hi - It is accepted by UKVI. When they make RCoS application, they just have to mention the salary on the offer.

Thanks Shah! So the salary info is acceptable. Do you have any idea about closing date? Or do we have to fix it and repost it for another 28 days? I emailed my employer a couple of days ago but haven't heard anything back from them...

IHateTheresaMay · Post by **IHateTheresaMay** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:41 pm

Great post GettingTier2! Will be interesting to see how August pans out.

Any other PwC graduate hires? I received a short increase in salary that brought me right up to the 40 point mark. I guess I was at 39 before (thought it included all benefits, so thought I was at 40).

Anyway, did anyone else receive this?

cstylishsam · Post by **cstylishsam** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:00 pm

Prediction based on Averages (Dataset July 14 - June 15)

Average number of applicants at 50 points and above : 846

Average number of applicants at 45 points : 406

Average number of applicants at 40 points: 173 x3 (June, July and August) = 519

Average number of applicants at 39 points: 30 x3 (June, July and August) = 90

( 846+406+519+90= 1861)

Total available in Aug : 1747 + 100 ( Out of month allocation ) = 1847

This leaves us 14 short but there is a greater chance of application submitted at 39 points and above being successful this time. I will try to post the prediction based on Actuals (Dataset July 14 - June 15)

Datasource : https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... 0table.xls

shannon5g · Post by **shannon5g** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:28 pm

Thanks so much for sharing.
May I ask whether someone has asked for the detailed figure of the July panel this time? If not, we should do it right now!

Shah1698 · Post by **Shah1698** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:38 pm

Ln1124 wrote:
Shah1698 wrote:
Ln1124 wrote:I am applying this August and after reading your posts from previous months, I just realized that the job advert my employer posted did not include salary range and closing date. They just said "competitive rate of pay". Do you guys think there would be a problem? Now I have double worries, both the points and the RLMT.

Hi - It is accepted by UKVI. When they make RCoS application, they just have to mention the salary on the offer.
Thanks Shah! So the salary info is acceptable. Do you have any idea about closing date? Or do we have to fix it and repost it for another 28 days? I emailed my employer a couple of days ago but haven't heard anything back from them...

Hi Ln1124 - Closing date is mandatory. Adverts without closing date mentioned will be treated as invalid by UKVI. My RCoS was rejected in May just because there was no closing date in the advert. I suggest you speak with your employer and update the advert.

chanel123 · Post by **chanel123** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:59 pm

cstylishsam wrote:Prediction based on Averages (Dataset July 14 - June 15)

Average number of applicants at 50 points and above : 846

Average number of applicants at 45 points : 406

Average number of applicants at 40 points: 173 x3 (June, July and August) = 519

Average number of applicants at 39 points: 30 x3 (June, July and August) = 90

( 846+406+519+90= 1861)

Total available in Aug : 1747 + 100 ( Out of month allocation ) = 1847

This leaves us 14 short but there is a greater chance of application submitted at 39 points and above being successful this time. I will try to post the prediction based on Actuals (Dataset July 14 - June 15)

Datasource : https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... 0table.xls

Thanks so much for sharing this! unfortunately, one cannot take the average because the number of requests per month increases significantly. I think the cut off will be either 40 or 45 points.

cstylishsam · Post by **cstylishsam** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:10 pm

chanel123 wrote:
cstylishsam wrote:Prediction based on Averages (Dataset July 14 - June 15)

Average number of applicants at 50 points and above : 846

Average number of applicants at 45 points : 406

Average number of applicants at 40 points: 173 x3 (June, July and August) = 519

Average number of applicants at 39 points: 30 x3 (June, July and August) = 90

( 846+406+519+90= 1861)

Total available in Aug : 1747 + 100 ( Out of month allocation ) = 1847

This leaves us 14 short but there is a greater chance of application submitted at 39 points and above being successful this time. I will try to post the prediction based on Actuals (Dataset July 14 - June 15)

Datasource : https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... 0table.xls

Thanks so much for sharing this! unfortunately, one cannot take the average because the number of requests per month increases significantly. I think the cut off will be either 40 or 45 points.

I agree. I will post prediction based on Actuals too

GettingTier2 · Post by **GettingTier2** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:25 pm

cstylishsam wrote:
chanel123 wrote:
cstylishsam wrote:Prediction based on Averages (Dataset July 14 - June 15)

Average number of applicants at 50 points and above : 846

Average number of applicants at 45 points : 406

Average number of applicants at 40 points: 173 x3 (June, July and August) = 519

Average number of applicants at 39 points: 30 x3 (June, July and August) = 90

( 846+406+519+90= 1861)

Total available in Aug : 1747 + 100 ( Out of month allocation ) = 1847

This leaves us 14 short but there is a greater chance of application submitted at 39 points and above being successful this time. I will try to post the prediction based on Actuals (Dataset July 14 - June 15)

Datasource : https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... 0table.xls

Thanks so much for sharing this! unfortunately, one cannot take the average because the number of requests per month increases significantly. I think the cut off will be either 40 or 45 points.
I agree. I will post prediction based on Actuals too

well. no one can be sure what will be the situation in the future.

One can try to build a stochastic model or other statistical models using the data provided and hopefully there is some kind of trend/pattern which allows us to predict for August.

Requesting another FOI will take 20 days so not sure if July detailed stats can be obtained before August allocation meeting.

My gut instinct says August will see a great improvement.

ks227 · Post by **ks227** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:43 pm

That is great guys.

If I just may add the various other trends , for example

1) There is decline in CoS requests at all points from July to August (based on 2014 Data) which means in June July the demand has been higher than August previously (this is possibly due to September start date )
2) This trend can be confirmed by looking at the demand for RCoS at point 80 onwards, demand in June is twice the demand of previous months. (Does that confirm June July are peak times)

I predict the demands for higher points (in particular higher than 60) will be half as June July , making it possible to allocate RCoS and clear the backlog 35 points onwards.

Thank you and further comments please.

jobseeker_2015 · Post by **jobseeker_2015** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:30 pm

IHateTheresaMay wrote:Great post GettingTier2! Will be interesting to see how August pans out.

Any other PwC graduate hires? I received a short increase in salary that brought me right up to the 40 point mark. I guess I was at 39 before (thought it included all benefits, so thought I was at 40).

Anyway, did anyone else receive this?

hey, after the salary rise, do you have 40 points for PwC assurance or PwC consulting or advisory? Thanks

IHateTheresaMay · Post by **IHateTheresaMay** » Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:42 pm

jobseeker_2015 wrote:
IHateTheresaMay wrote:Great post GettingTier2! Will be interesting to see how August pans out.

Any other PwC graduate hires? I received a short increase in salary that brought me right up to the 40 point mark. I guess I was at 39 before (thought it included all benefits, so thought I was at 40).

Anyway, did anyone else receive this?

hey, after the salary rise, do you have 40 points for PwC assurance or PwC consulting or advisory? Thanks

40 points for pwc Assurance. I think some of the other lines were already supplying a 28k+ salary so this move just bumped me up to 40, I believe.

Pwc has been good though and it seems they really want us to join the firm (despite being quiet as of late regarding action plans). EY, I heard from a friend, hasn't been so transparent about the whole restricted cos process.

Ln1124 · Post by **Ln1124** » Thu Jul 23, 2015 4:55 am

Shah1698 wrote:
Ln1124 wrote:
Shah1698 wrote:

Hi - It is accepted by UKVI. When they make RCoS application, they just have to mention the salary on the offer.
Thanks Shah! So the salary info is acceptable. Do you have any idea about closing date? Or do we have to fix it and repost it for another 28 days? I emailed my employer a couple of days ago but haven't heard anything back from them...

Hi Ln1124 - Closing date is mandatory. Adverts without closing date mentioned will be treated as invalid by UKVI. My RCoS was rejected in May just because there was no closing date in the advert. I suggest you speak with your employer and update the advert.

Yeah, I spoke to them today, and looks like they have to repost it. Sigh... Another 28 days. Are you applying from the UK?

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