Theory on anomalies in processing times

[lynn132]

This is just a theory, so please don’t flame me. Like everyone else, I’m just trying to make sense of the processing times.

We know:
•Applicants from June through November of last year are in a months-long queue
•Applicants in December and January appear to be getting processed faster (both approvals AND rejections)
•A new form was introduced in November that could be filled in electronically (easier both to fill out and to read) rather than the pdf form which many had to fill in by hand
•More caseworkers were added recently, possibly doubling the original number of caseworkers
•The entire immigration system is being changed to a points-based scheme

So, if I were training new caseworkers, I’d want them trained on the new form and on the points-based system, and I’d want to make sure that the backlog in HSMP didn’t get worse in the meantime.

My theory is that the new group of caseworkers are working on applications submitted on the new form, i.e., those submitted AFTER November. And since they aren't backed up yet, having only two or three months worth of applications, they are working through their pile of applications more quickly than the original group of caseworkers, who are still plowing through the backlog of many applications (some handwritten) that started piling up around the June '04 timeframe.

This would explain some of the anomalies we’ve seen. I don't think it is random, as some have suggested. There is a method to it, even if it may not be logical.

[Cosmopol]

I tend to agree with the main idea, that what we observe is an effort to reorganize the applications processing. Regardless of other circumstances (new law, forms, etc.) there are several ways to do it. There's one where the queue stays the same (first in, first out), just gets processed faster with more staff. In another the second queue is created for the new apps coming in, where the service standard is met "as originally advertised" (i.e., if your app is straightforward and well doc'ed, we'll try to make it a same-day decision), while the original queue is separated and processed by another sub-group until it's over. There are pro and con arguments (logical, psychological and other) for either approach. It starts looking like WPUK has taken on the second - let's keep watching it; perhaps the trend will clearly emerge or change into another one.

There was a criminal case in the U.S. a couple of years ago, where an INS supervisor in their California processing center physically eliminated the backlog by shredding about 75,000 cases along with original documents submitted. I say, any approach is better than that

[shonolaku]

I think we can sample situation by answering the questions below. This will serve as a guide and a way of predicting the processing level of the scheme:

1. Do we have any June Applicant that hasn't got a decision from HO and has he got in touch with HO and any response from them.

2. Do we have any other pre November 2004 applicant still on queue.

3. What is the average processing time for post november 2004 applicant.

This I think will be a good guide if we can response sincerely.

Thanks

[Alagomeji]

Goodness Cosmopol, that is HORRIBLE! I can imagine my certificate (5 years of university education) sliding through the shredder, I assure you, I won't be pleased, to say the least. Is the US govt offering some sort of compensation for people who got their original documents shredded, by any chance?

[f2k]

Thing is if there is a system like that in place it might encourage some people to withdraw their applications, forfeit the £150, and resubmit the application, like for some who applied in November at the ‘official’ rate they will only get to their application sometime in June / July, if they took their chances and did the withdrawal thing, they might have a decision by the beginning of March, however the risk is the theory could be wrong and they might end up waiting another 8 months and be £150 worse off plus courier fees.
The other theory I read on this forum was that there are say a number of teams maybe 3 or 4, and you get one team looking at June / July another August / September then Oct / Nov then Dec / Jan, reason for this is that there some people from August who have received replies already and the new forms started being used in Nov even though they only became mandatory on the 1st of December.

Either way I don’t believe there still people from the 7th of June or before who are still waiting. They should be in the late 20s at least

[John]

I think one thing that is now certainly happening is a quick check of applications shortly after they arrive.

That is, all HSMP applications quickly examined within a week or two of arriving. Those that obviously pass .... or obviously fail ..... are then dealt with instantly. Those that don't clearly pass are then passed to the next stage. That is not to say that those passed to the next stage will end up being rejected .... just it will take longer for a conclusion to be reached.

In this way IND is able to dramatically improve its performance statistics. In time all the older applications, not necessarily pre-vetted in this way, will have been dealt with but what will not happen now is a trawl through those cases to pick out the easy ones.

I think IND have used "cherry-picking" in other departments for some time, for example when dealing with naturalisation applications. My wife applied last April at a time when the average application was said to be taking seven months. However she heard she had been successful after only five weeks. And we know that we are not alone in that. We have heard of others dealt with within three or four weeks.

[lightpace]

i quite tend to agree with f2k that they definitely cannot still be dealing with june 7 cases but should have moved (to my mind) to july by now. what to me is not right is the failure to update the operational service levels at least with that we could be able to pin down one or two of these theories as true.
it is also curious that we dont have board members of current months expressing themselves nowadays. perhaps HO is to blame

[sergio39]

I am a june 25 applicant and a week ago had a phone conversation vith HO. They said that the Oper. level on the site are true and my app hasn't been processed yet. Now they are processing apps with job offers.

[lynn132]

If they still have even one application from June 7 they cannot update the service levels given the way they report their service levels. They have to report it as "worst-case." And they certainly wouldn't tell someone who's been waiting since June that others without job offers are being processed or have already been processed, though we all have seen many examples of just that happening on this forum.
It's not fair, it's not equitable, and it's not logical, but we can't change that. Maybe it would help if we updated LAMike's spreadsheet with the new data we have.

[dcguy]

The "two-tier" review process does appear to be the case. I'm confirming this with my solictor who submitted my application. She encouraged me last summer to hold off applying as she believed this so-called "ringfencing" would be implemented in early fall. I waited until late September and when the "ringfencing" didn't occur, I just applied anyway. Unfortunately for many of us, it appears to have been implemented much later in December/January. Like others, I am tempted to withdraw my application and reapply, particulary as I don't know when my application will be approved. I'm planning to move to the UK anyway and begin interviewing, hoping I can convince an employer to provide me with the "majic" offer letter so as to be able to get immediate priority.

[f2k]

DCguy, about withdrawing the applications i think a lot of pple are playing a wait and see game, especially those who applied towards the end of November , i m sure if one person does it successfully we will all be following suit. About job offers it only seems its only now that they are getting to them, there was a long period of time when people who had sent in job offers were hearing nothing from the HO, i have now seen a couple of postings saying they have had their job offers processed, so hopefully they have that queue up to date as well and its hands on the JUne applicants