March 2018 Restricted COS

[CR001]

March 2018 allocation has been updated on the below website. Minimum point score for successful applications in March 56

https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... ponsorship

Members please note that the link for the update has been posted already. It is not necessary for every other member to post a one liner stating this!

[Lujain]

Does anyone have an idea what the points will be like for next month ?

Thanks so much

[Jabba03]

I guess not shocking news with the cut off. Scary seeing it so high again would have been great if it somehow stayed at 46 with the lower amount of visas available. Surely the Home Office has to make some sort of changes. Looking at the usual amount of visas given out a month and doing some simple estimation work it looks like there may be around 4200 applications in April with only 2200 spots available.

I really hope they address the issue and promptly to give us all some sort of peace of mind, or provide further data to allow us to better estimate whether we will successfully get through next month. I have been rejected twice now and out of work for 5 weeks.

41 points, non shortage.

[thisB]

I guess not shocking news with the cut off. Scary seeing it so high again would have been great if it somehow stayed at 46 with the lower amount of visas available. Surely the Home Office has to make some sort of changes. Looking at the usual amount of visas given out a month and doing some simple estimation work it looks like there may be around 4200 applications in April with only 2200 spots available.

I really hope they address the issue and promptly to give us all some sort of peace of mind, or provide further data to allow us to better estimate whether we will successfully get through next month. I have been rejected twice now and out of work for 5 weeks.

41 points, non shortage.

How did you estimate this?

[Jabba03]

I guess not shocking news with the cut off. Scary seeing it so high again would have been great if it somehow stayed at 46 with the lower amount of visas available. Surely the Home Office has to make some sort of changes. Looking at the usual amount of visas given out a month and doing some simple estimation work it looks like there may be around 4200 applications in April with only 2200 spots available.

I really hope they address the issue and promptly to give us all some sort of peace of mind, or provide further data to allow us to better estimate whether we will successfully get through next month. I have been rejected twice now and out of work for 5 weeks.

41 points, non shortage.

How did you estimate this?

Basically just took the average number of applications approved during April-Nov as the number generally gone through. Then used that number for the months Dec-Mar, subtracted the amount of visas given out in that time which left around 2100 that wouldn’t have got through in the previous months, add the average number of 2050 and gives that number. Very rough, could be completely wrong, but the best I could estimate. Just have to hope selfishly that 2000 of these 4200 are below 41 points!

[Amrita30j]

Hi..can anybody tell me whats the possibility of getting cos in April 2018 for 40K salary and non shortage?

[psivajim23]

Can you please let me know how do you know your application belongs to shortage or non-shortage.

[CR001]

Can you please let me know how do you know your application belongs to shortage or non-shortage.

It depends on the SOC.

[psivajim23]

Where we can find this? Can you please tell me

[Amrita30j]

Non shortage

[Amrita30j]

Can you please let me know how do you know your application belongs to shortage or non-shortage.

Non shortage..If I am not wrong I am scoring 40 points..

[Amrita30j]

Where we can find this? Can you please tell me

https://www.gov.uk/government/collectio ... tage-lists

[psivajim23]

Thanks for replying Amritha.are you applying for April and how many points are you getting..?

[Amrita30j]

Thanks for replying Amritha.are you applying for April and how many points are you getting..?

My company has been applying since Jan.. got rejected 3 times already. yeah they are again applying in April.

[Amrita30j]

Thanks for replying Amritha.are you applying for April and how many points are you getting..?

My company has been applying since Jan.. got rejected 3 times already. yeah they are again applying in April.

40 points

[Amrita30j]

Hi..can anybody tell me whats the possibility of getting cos in April 2018 for 40K salary and non shortage?

Can anyone predict what would be the cut off during April? Have shortage occupants been allotted their cos already?

[vakula]

Hi..can anybody tell me whats the possibility of getting cos in April 2018 for 40K salary and non shortage?

Can anyone predict what would be the cut off during April? Have shortage occupants been allotted their cos already?

Even my employer applied 3 times now, refused with 40 points... any predictions of the cutoff during April? My application comes under non shortage occupation... can we hope for positive results for applicants whose score is less than 40 in the month of April?

[krimurthy]

Folks we all know what has happened last few months, nobody knows what's the cut off would be. There is a big back log though we have 2200 in april but there are chances of 40+ to go through you never know. So please keep calm and wait for any news on policy changes/Allocation outcome in april.

[hopeful4000]

this is a guessing game does anyone know from the stats how many are stuck in the 50 to 55 range and 45 to 50 range. this is the only stat relevant but not published i think they love to keep people on tenterhooks for a month and declare the results on 28th in this age of automation have a feeling 40 will make it gut feel

[mschase]

Basically just took the average number of applications approved during April-Nov as the number generally gone through. Then used that number for the months Dec-Mar, subtracted the amount of visas given out in that time which left around 2100 that wouldn’t have got through in the previous months, add the average number of 2050 and gives that number. Very rough, could be completely wrong, but the best I could estimate. Just have to hope selfishly that 2000 of these 4200 are below 41 points!

After reading this, I decided to take a jab at the calculation myself:

From April 2017 to March 2018, here is the (# of rCOS granted) / (# of rCOS available for allocation):

April 2017 1844 / 2176 (net 332)
May 2017 1829 / 2240 (net 408)
June 2017 2005 / 2326 (net 321)
July 2017 2440 / 2591 (net 151)
Aug 2017 2245 / 2385 (net 140)
Sep 2017 2008 / 2387 (net 379)
Oct 2017 2182 / 2213 (net 31)
Nov 2017 1747 / 1759 (net 12)
------------------------------------------------------------------(21 cut off above - no over-subscription of app)
Dec 2017 1527 / 1436 (91 borrowed) ------- (55 cut off)
Jan 2018 1536 / 1651 (net 115) ------- (46 cut off)
Feb 2018 1707 / 1908 (net 201) ------- (46 cut off)
Mar 2018 1347 / 1414 (67 balance?) -------- (56 cut off)

=============================================================
"My Backlog Calculation"
=============================================================
Average of applications granted from April - Nov = 2037.

Out of 2037, my breakup assumption for points is:
55+ points = 500 applications
46 to 55 = 500 applications
34 to 45 = 800 applications
<33 = 200 applications
------------------------------------------------------------------
So Cumulative Backlog since Dec 2017 (assuming everyone reapplies):

Dec 2017 = 1500 applications (55 below rejected)
Jan 2017 = 2500 applications (46 below rejected) (1500 + 1000)
Feb 2017 = 3500 applications (46 below rejected) (2500 + 1000)
Mar 2017 = 5000 applications (55 below rejected) (3500 + 1500)

TOTAL BACKLOG = 5,000.


I've also read a few articles today morning - April and May look pretty bad despite exempting nurses from quota (assumption).

If they do not make any quota number changes, exemptions from quota etc., and this trend continues then........... (feel free to complete the sentence in your thoughts haha)

[Plabber_123]

Basically just took the average number of applications approved during April-Nov as the number generally gone through. Then used that number for the months Dec-Mar, subtracted the amount of visas given out in that time which left around 2100 that wouldn’t have got through in the previous months, add the average number of 2050 and gives that number. Very rough, could be completely wrong, but the best I could estimate. Just have to hope selfishly that 2000 of these 4200 are below 41 points!

After reading this, I decided to take a jab at the calculation myself:

From April 2017 to March 2018, here is the (# of rCOS granted) / (# of rCOS available for allocation):

April 2017 1844 / 2176 (net 332)
May 2017 1829 / 2240 (net 408)
June 2017 2005 / 2326 (net 321)
July 2017 2440 / 2591 (net 151)
Aug 2017 2245 / 2385 (net 140)
Sep 2017 2008 / 2387 (net 379)
Oct 2017 2182 / 2213 (net 31)
Nov 2017 1747 / 1759 (net 12)
------------------------------------------------------------------(21 cut off above - no over-subscription of app)
Dec 2017 1527 / 1436 (91 borrowed) ------- (55 cut off)
Jan 2018 1536 / 1651 (net 115) ------- (46 cut off)
Feb 2018 1707 / 1908 (net 201) ------- (46 cut off)
Mar 2018 1347 / 1414 (67 balance?) -------- (56 cut off)

=============================================================
"My Backlog Calculation"
=============================================================
Average of applications granted from April - Nov = 2037.

Out of 2037, my breakup assumption for points is:
55+ points = 500 applications
46 to 55 = 500 applications
34 to 45 = 800 applications
<33 = 200 applications
------------------------------------------------------------------
So Cumulative Backlog since Dec 2017 (assuming everyone reapplies):

Dec 2017 = 1500 applications (55 below rejected)
Jan 2017 = 2500 applications (46 below rejected) (1500 + 1000)
Feb 2017 = 3500 applications (46 below rejected) (2500 + 1000)
Mar 2017 = 5000 applications (55 below rejected) (3500 + 1500)

TOTAL BACKLOG = 5,000.


I've also read a few articles today morning - April and May look pretty bad despite exempting nurses from quota (assumption).

If they do not make any quota number changes, exemptions from quota etc., and this trend continues then........... (feel free to complete the sentence in your thoughts haha)

I do not think we can calculate things like this. There will be many fresh applicants in April as well as those who are unable to reapply (Due to RLMT expiring, job offer cancellation etc.). I think the main deciding factor will be the number of nurses recruited in April along with the number of people at 45 who have long been denied their CoS.

[Lujain]

Hey everyone,
I was wondering is there a certain number of times you can apply for Cos? My employer applied twice and April would be the third time.

Thanks
Lujain

[Plabber_123]

Hey everyone,
I was wondering is there a certain number of times you can apply for Cos? My employer applied twice and April would be the third time.

Thanks
Lujain

As long as the rlmt is valid he can apply till it is approved. It is valid for 6 months from the date the post was first advertised. If it is expiring he will have to do another rlmt which takes 28 days.

[Jabba03]

What articles have you read to state that? April/May looks unlikely I think for those under 30 points if nurses are exempted, but I believe if exemptions are made or quota increased it should hopefully be enough to at least get the point cut off score below 40. Praying they finally decide to make a change. Hopefully they are receiving many calls from journalists wanting comments.

Basically just took the average number of applications approved during April-Nov as the number generally gone through. Then used that number for the months Dec-Mar, subtracted the amount of visas given out in that time which left around 2100 that wouldn’t have got through in the previous months, add the average number of 2050 and gives that number. Very rough, could be completely wrong, but the best I could estimate. Just have to hope selfishly that 2000 of these 4200 are below 41 points!

After reading this, I decided to take a jab at the calculation myself:

From April 2017 to March 2018, here is the (# of rCOS granted) / (# of rCOS available for allocation):

April 2017 1844 / 2176 (net 332)
May 2017 1829 / 2240 (net 408)
June 2017 2005 / 2326 (net 321)
July 2017 2440 / 2591 (net 151)
Aug 2017 2245 / 2385 (net 140)
Sep 2017 2008 / 2387 (net 379)
Oct 2017 2182 / 2213 (net 31)
Nov 2017 1747 / 1759 (net 12)
------------------------------------------------------------------(21 cut off above - no over-subscription of app)
Dec 2017 1527 / 1436 (91 borrowed) ------- (55 cut off)
Jan 2018 1536 / 1651 (net 115) ------- (46 cut off)
Feb 2018 1707 / 1908 (net 201) ------- (46 cut off)
Mar 2018 1347 / 1414 (67 balance?) -------- (56 cut off)

=============================================================
"My Backlog Calculation"
=============================================================
Average of applications granted from April - Nov = 2037.

Out of 2037, my breakup assumption for points is:
55+ points = 500 applications
46 to 55 = 500 applications
34 to 45 = 800 applications
<33 = 200 applications
------------------------------------------------------------------
So Cumulative Backlog since Dec 2017 (assuming everyone reapplies):

Dec 2017 = 1500 applications (55 below rejected)
Jan 2017 = 2500 applications (46 below rejected) (1500 + 1000)
Feb 2017 = 3500 applications (46 below rejected) (2500 + 1000)
Mar 2017 = 5000 applications (55 below rejected) (3500 + 1500)

TOTAL BACKLOG = 5,000.


I've also read a few articles today morning - April and May look pretty bad despite exempting nurses from quota (assumption).

If they do not make any quota number changes, exemptions from quota etc., and this trend continues then........... (feel free to complete the sentence in your thoughts haha)

[krimurthy]

Yes we ll get to know about this end of April 1st week, last 2 years whatever update they have made it was always published on 6th or 7th April. If they exempt nurse or/and SOL am sure the cut off will fall down to 35 since the 1/3 of RCOS goes to NHS so fingers crossed.