Trin1121 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:55 pm
When do parliament reconvene after the Christmas/New Year break? Does anybody know when they are actually going to take up these proposed changes and debate them?
The Commons
sits again on 8th January and the Lords
on 10th January (
find your MP) I have covered the
parliamentary procedure for this change before in an earlier post.
Trin1121 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:55 pm
2. Why they seem to know very little about their own policies, including the fact that they MUST issue guidance based on the cash savings route along with the MIR guidelines.
They do know that. Which is why the policy announcement was on 4th December, but the policy is expected to come into force only in the spring of 2024, now narrowed down to April 2024.
The government made the policy decision and announcement and now the civil servants and lawyers will write out the Immigration Rules and guidance to implement the policy. Those four months in between are for the writing of the Rules and guidance.
If the Rules and guidance were ready to go, the government could have brought in the changes in December itself.
It is possible (I am guessing, not certain) that the government made the announcement this early so that it would take effect even in case of a surprise early general election. Policies and Statutory Instruments need to have been announced/introduced for a certain amount of time before the dissolution or prorogation of Parliament. The prorogation and State Opening of Parliament is what led to the delay in the implementation of the increase in the Immigration Health Surcharge.
Trin1121 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 1:55 pm
I believe they are announcing this policy change in such a haphazard and last-minute way purely because they know it will prevent the VAST majority of LEGAL family migration.
That is almost certainly its intent. I recall seeing a graph on a news program that about a third of the increase in legal migration last year was family migration. That is a large chunk that can be addressed by a single policy. So, yes, I think you are correct.
It is unlikely that it will be going up again, outside the stepped increases already announced. Note that this is the first ever increase in the MIR since it was introduced 11 years ago. So increases are not that frequent.
Also, there will be a general election this year, which may lead to a change in government that may decide to pause or cancel the increases.
It is worth remembering that Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK on a non-visit visa (which includes family migrants) can vote in UK general elections.
EDIT:
Petition to Parliament to cancel increase the income requirement for family visas to £38,700
Note that even if the petition reaches 100,000, the petition
may be debated in the House of Commons, but only on a Take Note motion (i.e. it will not force the government to change tack, but will give MPs an opportunity to express their opinions).
I am not a lawyer or immigration advisor. My statements/comments do not constitute legal advice. E&OE. Please do not PM me for advice.