Post
by tyrex2000 » Mon Jun 14, 2004 7:53 am
Some observations on numbers using LA_Mike's Sheet,
I'm trying to estimate the potential benefit to UK economy due to
HSMPs and also how long this scheme is likely to continue without
any changes to the points and criteria (Still need to plug-in the economic
numbers, will do soon).
============================================
Total HSMPs currently in UK = 16,000
Current rate of new applications = 2,000 per month
Estimated Processing Time now ~ 100 days (Calculated from the HO website)
Estimated HSMPs in UK @ Jan 2005 ~ 30,000
Estimated HSMPs in UK @ Jan 2006 ~ 50,000
% of UK Population as HSMPs in 2006 ~ 1% (UK Population= 58 Million)
============================================
Here's how I arrived at these numbers:
App. Ref. No Begin Jan 2004- 10,000
App. Ref. No Begin Jun 2004- 20,000
Hence, 10,000 applications in 5 months = 2,000 per month
Total applications = 20,000 Since 28 Jan 2002
i.e. 12,000 applications in 2 Years and
about 8,000 in the last 4 months (2004)
On Average,
Before Jan 2004 = 500 applications/ month
After Jan 2004 = 2000 applications/ month
Assuming a 10% failure rate (likely, judging from few failures reported on this forum) and about 10% drop outs (those who don't enter UK even after getting HSMP), there are about 16000 (20,000 X 80%) HSMPs now in the UK.
. Have included the spreadsheet topic in the HSMP FAQ on processing times so posters can refer to it. 
