Application success rate/trying to determine new cap impact

[IwantTier1]

So I found on the UKBA website that in 1Q 2010, an average of 2750 people per month across the world applied for a Tier 1.

Anyone have any sense of what % of applications get approved. Is it somewhere near 90%, 75%, 50%, 25%???

I'm confident I qualify but if there is typically a high success rate, the monthly limit of 600 could now mean a 4 month+ wait!

Also would be interesting to see how many less people will apply in the next month given the new 80 point requirement

[ukswus]

So I found on the UKBA website that in 1Q 2010, an average of 2750 people per month across the world applied for a Tier 1.

Anyone have any sense of what % of applications get approved. Is it somewhere near 90%, 75%, 50%, 25%???

I'm confident I qualify but if there is typically a high success rate, the monthly limit of 600 could now mean a 4 month+ wait!

Also would be interesting to see how many less people will apply in the next month given the new 80 point requirement

I did quick, "back of the envelope" calculation.

Given that about 5,400 main applicants were approved in the 9 months before June of this year, it means that about 7,200 main applicants were approved in 12 months before June. This implies that on average, about 600 main application per months were approved over that period. Therefore, the success rate is about 22% (600/2,750). This assumes that 2,750 figure applies to main applicants only.

Having said that, the Q1 application number could have been boosted by a spike because of the change in rules in April. If so, the average application number can usually be smaller, and the success rate- higher.

[IwantTier1]

"Given that about 5,400 main applicants were approved in the 9 months before June of this year, it means that about 7,200 main applicants were approved in 12 months before June."

ukswus, that would be great news for people that know they qualify I suppose. Can I ask you where you found the data saying only 5400 applicants were approved in the 9 months?

For the record here is my source for the average of 2750/month for Q1 2010

[url]http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/resources/en/ ... akeholder1[/url]

[IwantTier1]

ukswus, are you sure the 5400 number wasn't the amount they're going to grant going forward as opposed to how many they have granted?

[ArgieBee]

I think the difference in the numbers is because one includes in country applications and one does not. In country applications are not capped. Only the 5400 over 9 months out of country applications are capped and the cap is at the same level as last year.

The big difference for tier 1 is the extra 5 points which probably means the cap will not be reached.

[ArgieBee]

This FOI request gives the rejection figures:
http://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/t ... ing-100524

I guess tier 1 includes PSW etc

[ukswus]

"Given that about 5,400 main applicants were approved in the 9 months before June of this year, it means that about 7,200 main applicants were approved in 12 months before June."

ukswus, that would be great news for people that know they qualify I suppose. Can I ask you where you found the data saying only 5400 applicants were approved in the 9 months?

For the record here is my source for the average of 2750/month for Q1 2010

http://www.ukvisas.gov.uk/resources/en/ ... akeholder1

This number is the same as the Tier 1 cap for the next 9 month (see UKBA's website). UKBA said they wanted it to be the same as the number of applications approved over the previous 9 months.

I just realized that this figure probably referred to out of country approvals only. If so, and if 2,750 figure referred to all applications (both in and out of country), then the true success rate may have bit somewhat higher. However, I just looked at your document, and I am not sure that it includes in-country applications ("UK visa section", whatever it is, just has 3 applications for Tier 1 considered).

EDIT: I have a strong suspicion that the document you have quoted includes dependent applications (and PSW). If so, then assuming that just about 1/3 of the total number of Tier 1 applicants are main, the success rate was about 600/1000= 60%.

I guess we are now in the territory of too many assumptions...

[IwantTier1]

Thanks so much for your help guys. I was also able to find this very detailed document from the UKBA detailing the rationale behind the decision. Page 8 is helpful and shows that you are in fact right.

[url]http://www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/sitec ... iew=Binary[/url]

[quote]Tier 1:
Tier 1 (General) visa approvals will be limited to the same volumes as the equivalent period in 2009. Volumes of approvals should therefore stay constant, assuming the volume of applications and grants remains the same as 2009 levels. We therefore assume there is no overall reduction in Tier 1 (General) visa approvals as a result of the interim limit. The interim limit will therefore be set at 5,400 for Tier 1 (General) visa approvals for the period July 2010 to March 2011.[/quote]

Overall, it sounds like the recent changes are very unfortunate for people affected by the move to 80 points but that people who do qualify should feel somewhat comfortable with the interim quote for now.

[prisat]

I think the difference in the numbers is because one includes in country applications and one does not. In country applications are not capped. Only the 5400 over 9 months out of country applications are capped and the cap is at the same level as last year.

The big difference for tier 1 is the extra 5 points which probably means the cap will not be reached.

Last years masters was compulsory....

now instead of masters, they have the polished stuff... +5 points, which can be adjusted anywhere... either in masters or in the previous earnings section !!!