December Limit reached as well?

silverTR · Post by **silverTR** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:30 am

be sure that i am the most unpanic person in the forum

SureShot · Post by **SureShot** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 9:52 am

silverTR wrote: We already know November limit has been reached.. actually i want to know what about December limit..

Also i am still clueless abt the fact that the OP says VFS Bahrain are not accepting applications at all.
Then how can VFS delhi keep accepting the applicatins?

neosumit · Post by **neosumit** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:08 am

The data from the 'Guide to processing times' for September 2010 suggests the following:

1. 1030 approx application from India alone
2. Include Pakistan, USA, Bangladesh and Middle East countries, it goes upto 1600+

All in all approx. 2000 applications for PBS Tier-1 in September 2010 worldwide.

Because of panic more people would try to apply in Dec/Jan.

One needs to apply in early January if he/she needs the Visa from the quota available till March 2010.

mulderpf · Post by **mulderpf** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:28 am

That would mean roughly a 30% approval rate (or less) based on your info alone as the cap wasn't reached in September.

thelionking · Post by **thelionking** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:48 am

Well, on 21st October the UK Visas and UKBA websites announced "The limit for Tier 1 (General) applications has been reached for October 2010" ... then on 1st November they announced that "UK Border Agency restarts issuing successful Tier 1 (General) applications" ... and then of course on 10th November "The limit for Tier 1 (General) applications has been reached for November 2010" ... no news update today being 1st December ... neither have they said Limit for December 2010 has reached, nor have they stated (like the previous month) that they have restarted issuing successful Tier 1 visas ...

Update from my friend in Bahrain: He has gone back to VFS there this morning and successfully submitted the application now, which was per his earlier meeting when he re-booked an appountment for today in advance and he has been informed that his application is now going in the January 2011 pool and if it is rejected he will know when it's processed and if it is successful, he would have to wait till January for quota to open before he is issued the passport. He says they reapetedly told him this and reiterated the fact that he cannot withdraw his passport now and if he needs to travel in emergency, he'll have to withdraw his application and lose the fee.

neosumit · Post by **neosumit** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 11:49 am

mulderpf wrote:That would mean roughly a 30% approval rate (or less) based on your info alone as the cap wasn't reached in September.

Yes. that's correct.

But you also need to see the data for administrative review. 20% of the AR applicants in 2009 were able to secure the Visa.(source UKBA)

That roughly translates to 12-15% of the entire lot, assuming all those who get resfused file an AR as well.

Thus the total approval rate has to be approx. 40-45%.

silverTR · Post by **silverTR** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:52 pm

well i am still checking the latest news on ukba website for announcement

i ll let you know

mulderpf · Post by **mulderpf** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 1:57 pm

neosumit wrote:
mulderpf wrote:That would mean roughly a 30% approval rate (or less) based on your info alone as the cap wasn't reached in September.
Yes. that's correct.

But you also need to see the data for administrative review. 20% of the AR applicants in 2009 were able to secure the Visa.(source UKBA)

That roughly translates to 12-15% of the entire lot, assuming all those who get resfused file an AR as well.

Thus the total approval rate has to be approx. 40-45%.

That's of course assuming 100% of the rejections go for AR

Interesting stats though - 30% to 40% approval rate then...that's quite scary as the UK's system is probably the most straight-forward in the world. There's very little grey areas compared to other applications. I seriously wonder if the rejections are out of pure ignorance, misunderstanding or just chance takers (for the sort of money you pay for this, I would have thought people would be sure about their cases).

Anyway - I'm going off-topic now I think...

neosumit · Post by **neosumit** » Wed Dec 01, 2010 2:25 pm

I have consulted few 'Visa agencies' and in general they are of the view that this process is a money making business for UKBA.

Probably the above argument helps these 'agents' as they cajole the applicants to use their services and get paid almost equivalent to the Visa fees in return.

But the way people have got rejected and then got the decision overturned after an AR also suggests to me that applicants are rejected in the first instance for reasons which we know are not really correct as per the laid guidelines.

At the cost of being off-topic, I can say that UKBA is not doing the job that we expect it to do after paying such a hefty fee!

riteshgaur · Post by **riteshgaur** » Thu Dec 02, 2010 7:54 am

They have started issuing the Visa from Dec quota ...

Sowmya · Post by **Sowmya** » Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:31 pm

Hi Ritesh
How do you know that?
I'm waiting for the news and no news at all in any uk immigration websites

Post by **geriatrix** » Thu Dec 02, 2010 5:45 pm

Sowmya wrote:Hi Ritesh
How do you know that?
I'm waiting for the news and no news at all in any uk immigration websites

1. Absence of announcement that December limit has been reached is one indicator.
2. This post confirms grant of visa on 1st-Dec-10.

regards

new_to_it_all · Post by **new_to_it_all** » Thu Dec 02, 2010 9:51 pm

sushdmehta wrote:
Sowmya wrote:Hi Ritesh
How do you know that?
I'm waiting for the news and no news at all in any uk immigration websites
1. Absence of announcement that December limit has been reached is one indicator.
2. This post confirms grant of visa on 1st-Dec-10.

regards

Hi, Like many others who had applied in November for Tier 1 (g) I was eagerly awaiting some kind of response from UKBA for the opening of December allocations of Visas. I was therefore watching this forum carefully in case anyone did receive any response good or bad.

Since this morning a few people confirmed they had received their Tier 1 visa despite there being no announcement from UKBA (which looks like it is gridlocked in snow)

However a few hours later the slate was wiped clean and the statements deleted.

I find this strange. Why were these deleted? Is it because there were no visas or that people changed their minds about advertising their success?

Either way I would love to know whether visas were actually given since 1st December or not.

Can anyone definitely confirm please?

Post by **geriatrix** » Thu Dec 02, 2010 11:21 pm

new_to_it_all, the response above your post answers your query adequately. If in doubt, a call to the local VAC should help confirm the fact.

new_to_it_all wrote:I find this strange. Why were these deleted? Is it because there were no visas or that people changed their minds about advertising their success?

To know whether visas have been issued (in December) or processing timelines, keep an eye on this topic, created for successful applicants to "advertise" their success.

The limit for December month has not yet been reached. If and when it happens, it will be announced on UKVisas website and UKBA website.

regards

MattDell · Post by **MattDell** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 1:01 am

sushdmehta wrote:new_to_it_all, the response above your post answers your query adequately. If in doubt, a call to the local VAC should help confirm the fact.

new_to_it_all wrote:I find this strange. Why were these deleted? Is it because there were no visas or that people changed their minds about advertising their success?
To know whether visas have been issued (in December) or processing timelines, keep an eye on this topic, created for successful applicants to "advertise" their success.

The limit for December month has not yet been reached. If and when it happens, it will be announced on UKVisas website and UKBA website.

regards

he/she is pointing out that the last post has been deleted where someone reportedly received a visa that was approved on december 1st. They already know where to find the information, but it's quite strange that it was deleted. Why did that happen?

Post by **geriatrix** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 2:23 am

MattDell wrote:Why did that happen?

Perhaps because this topic is not meant to post application timelines or encourage associated discussion? but was created to discuss if December limit has been reached. While members are expected not to digress from the subject of discussion, off-topic posts may be deleted to retain the focus on stated subject.

As for the recent queries: One member (riteshgaur) has already confirmed that visa issuance has (re)started. Link to a post has also been provided where a member has posted timeline confirming grant of visa on 01-Dec.

regards

new_to_it_all · Post by **new_to_it_all** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 5:12 am

sushdmehta wrote:
MattDell wrote:Why did that happen?
Perhaps because this topic is not meant to post application timelines or encourage associated discussion? but was created to discuss if December limit has been reached. While members are expected not to digress from the subject of discussion, off-topic posts may be deleted to retain the focus on stated subject.

As for the recent queries: One member (riteshgaur) has already confirmed that visa issuance has (re)started. Link to a post has also been provided where a member has posted timeline confirming grant of visa on 01-Dec.

regards

Mattdell, you are right, I believe most people know where to look for results to their visa application, not least the passport tracking service. I was simply watching the forum to see whether others had news.

Shushdmehta, the strange thing was that it wasn't just one post that was deleted but at least ten in which the member riteshgaur also confirmed that he had received a visa along with others.

I have seen that moderators usually encourage posters to the correct section of topics but have never witnessed complete deletion of posts.

However, no worries, congrats to those who received good news and good luck to those still waiting.

UK seems to be in the grip of a dreadful freeze spell, God bless the UKBA staff struggling to get to work.

Regards to one and all

riteshgaur · Post by **riteshgaur** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:11 am

I think new_to_it_all is seeing this post in some state of mind where he see illusions that everyone is receiving visa.

I never posted that I received my visa but I can confirm from topic menstioned by Sushdmehta that ppl are getting their visa, means dec quota has opened.

Also, I can confirm now that my status shows + confirmed my Vfs, that my processed application has being delivered ... so am waiting ...

new_to_it_all · Post by **new_to_it_all** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:28 am

riteshgaur wrote:I think new_to_it_all is seeing this post in some state of mind where he see illusions that everyone is receiving visa.

I never posted that I received my visa but I can confirm from topic menstioned by Sushdmehta that ppl are getting their visa, means dec quota has opened.

Also, I can confirm now that my status shows + confirmed my Vfs, that my processed application has being delivered ... so am waiting ...

Thanks for your post Ritesh. The matter becomes more intriguing!!! Looks like a case for Sherlock Holmes

especially as I seem to be deluding too

If my memory serves me right, one of your posts did actually mention that you had phoned VFS and your status had changed at the same time.

But as mentioned before this is not a matter for great concern, after all it is just a forum to exchange views, news and ideas. There is nothing personal about it. I just questioned why posts about receiving visas or news about applications since 1st December were deleted.

Good luck for receiving happy news when you finally pick your post from VFS.

Keep smiling and have a nice day

riteshgaur · Post by **riteshgaur** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 6:38 am

No hard feelings.

Wish you the same ...

riteshgaur · Post by **riteshgaur** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 7:51 am

Just to update:

I got my visa ... I also updated in the relevant topic

new_to_it_all · Post by **new_to_it_all** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 9:18 am

The UKBA website has not confirmed whether the process of issuing of December Tier visas is back in place like they did on November 1st. Neither have they published on the website that the limit of December has been reached.

However according to Global Immigration News powered by Fragomen, the December limit has been exceeded. This news was published on December 3rd, so presumably that is the date that the limit was reached.

http://global-immigration-news.totallye ... mber-2010/

If this news is true and to be believed then why isn't UKBA coming clean to the applicants?

The issuance of visas also seems haphazard where some people who have applied before others, according to this forum, are awaiting replies positive or negative while others who applied later have received their visas.

This doesn't seem fair as, according to UKBA, applications which are successful will be issued visas strictly according to the place in the queue of the date when they were received worldwide. The applications which are negative should also be returned asap for passport access and for the chance to reapply should there have been genuine clerical errors.

I wonder how many people are still awaiting replies.

dandm · Post by **dandm** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 9:22 am

I think the UKBA's announcements have always been a few days in lag to be honest.

They do have a lot on their plate at the moment.

mulderpf · Post by **mulderpf** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 9:22 am

Source of the story is here.

That was posted on 2 December already. I wonder why a law firm in the US would know something about it when nobody else does.

new_to_it_all · Post by **new_to_it_all** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 9:30 am

mulderpf wrote:Source of the story is here.

That was posted on 2 December already. I wonder why a law firm in the US would know something about it when nobody else does.

Hehehe, a case for Julian Assange

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December Limit reached as well?

Strange

December limit reached?