Disclaimer: This method will only apply to straight forward applications if your application has niggles and complex it will definately take as long as they wish probably up to half a year before you can say anything...
please also Bear in mind things can dwell for months on straight ward applications too or get done exceptionally fast which is usually a mistake than intentional...
Date of application= Useless whether by post or NCS.
1. Date of Acknowledgement(DoA) on the letter received is where things start its the real date of application....usually concides with date of debiting your account.
From this date(DoA) count a good twenty days to approve a straight forward application note: always round off to the nearest number that will act as zero
example 1.if your date (DoA) was 8/5/13 then for calculation purposes make it 10/5/13 in your head...another example2 (DoA) 3/5/13 then for calculation purposes make it 01/5/13 in your head
2. Date of Approval(DoAPP) taking example 1 above if if your date (DoA) was 8/5/13 then for calculation purposes make it 10/5/13 in your head then after twenty days internal approval by UKBA should be made on the 30/5/13(DoAPP)...which is the date(DoAPP) you will see on your letter of approval then it will take ten days to reach you in the post.
3. Date of receipt of Approval( DoR) using example 1 we can add ten more days to (DoAPP) making (DoR) 10/6/13 this is the very day the post man will come knocking on the door if your (DoA) is 8/5/13 ...most applications that are straight forwards will fall in this range...of course we give or take three days to make up time wasted tea breaks, small talk and bathroom breaks that UKBA takes.
Typical example of member who just got approved
Eligibility criteria: 2 year Tier 2 +3 yrs Tier 1 + 1 yr ILR
Method of application: NCS Ilford
Date of application: 3rd April 2013
Date of receipt by UKBA:
Date of acknowledgement: 10th April 2013 (DoA)
Date of debit of fees: 9th April 2013 (DoA)
Date of approval: 10th May(DoR) dated approval on 4th May(DoAPP)
Good luck folks just work out your own dates and kick back knowing exactly when Mr Post man will come knocking ...