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OL7MAX
Member of Standing
Posts: 466
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2006 6:22 pm

Post by OL7MAX » Wed Apr 18, 2007 3:28 pm

In Stockholm syndrome the affected person's own, previous views are displaced by the views of the captors or aggressors.
Replace "captors" by "natives" and the similarities are striking! :)
In fact, the views will vary among immigrants, just as they vary among the rest of the population
They do. What Dawie is probably referring to, and it's something I've observed, is the lynch mob mentality of a section of first gen immigrants that could almost have come straight from the extremist right. That there are differing opinions is healthy. That such a vast majority of first generation immigrants seem to be anti-new immigrants is sad. That they insist further new immigrants suffer at least as much hardship as they did is petty and reflects badly on all immigrants.
But how many undocumented immigrants have the same case like you ???.
Hundreds of thousands if you include those categories I mentioned earlier. So, go on, is it going to be yes or no on those five categories?
I have read many of your posting ,including your story and my believe is that your case is genuine.
Thank you. So if I am category 6, you'd vote "yes"? What about the other categories?

Any position that insists 100% of "illegal immigrants" have lied and cheated their way into their current predicament is ignorant. Clarify for me that you don't share in that ignorance.
The UK justice system has several flaws.
I couldn't agree more. But even when it does work it does not dish out sympathy no matter how many time Adindas keeps saying it does. Let's do try and keep discussion about the quality of the criminal justice system out of this thread. Adindas introduced "the law" to argue that if all undocumented migrants came clean they'd get a sympathetic consideration and that such a lenient approach is actually something the UK authorities always apply. This is really not just a weird claim, it's also off-topic.
Last edited by OL7MAX on Wed Apr 18, 2007 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Christophe
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Joined: Tue Jul 04, 2006 5:54 pm

Post by Christophe » Wed Apr 18, 2007 3:38 pm

OL7MAX wrote:
In fact, the views will vary among immigrants, just as they vary among the rest of the population
They do. What Dawie is probably referring to, and it's something I've observed, is the lynch mob mentality of a section of first gen immigrants that could almost have come straight from the extremist right. That there are differing opinions is healthy. That such a vast majority of first generation immigrants seem to be anti-new immigrants is sad. That they insist further new immigrants suffer at least as much hardship as they did is petty and reflects badly on all immigrants.
Well, of course, that's not a dispassionate view and that, most would argue, is going too far the other way. As with most things in life, a healthy balance is good! (A dispassionate appraisal of the situation you describe, though, would prevent it reflecting badly on all immigrants... :-))

OL7MAX
Member of Standing
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Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2006 6:22 pm

Post by OL7MAX » Wed Apr 18, 2007 3:42 pm

Pray, what would your appraisal be?

Docterror
Senior Member
Posts: 950
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Location: Stoke-on-trent, UK
United Kingdom

Post by Docterror » Wed Apr 18, 2007 4:17 pm

OL7MAX wrote:That such a vast majority of first generation immigrants seem to be anti-new immigrants is sad.
How do we know that a vast majority of the first generation immigrants are anti-new immigrants? Will that claim stand the test of dispassionate appraisal as well? :wink:
Jabi

Christophe
Diamond Member
Posts: 1204
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Post by Christophe » Wed Apr 18, 2007 4:33 pm

OL7MAX wrote:Pray, what would your appraisal be?
Although not wishing to appear to duck out of the question entirely, I would preface any remarks by saying that the question is an extremely difficult one - as with most "problems", there is no easy answer, because if there were an easy answer the problem would go away.

In the long run, my biggest gripe about the immigration system in the UK as it relates to asylum seekers, which is the group that interests me most, is the enormous delays in the system. We are told that things are getting better, but are they? People who claim asylum sometimes have to wait years for final decisions to be made about their cases. This has a number of unwanted consequences, such as:
  • - Unnecessary stress (a 'soft' problem to the number crunchers, but a real one nonetheless and one with many knock-on consequences)
    - Opportunities for personal development (of many sorts, including but not limited to employment and career) are lost while people's lives are effectively partially 'on hold'; this has economic consequences (both personal and wider) and other consequences as well
    - Children who come to the UK grow up here and come to regard the UK as home, and of course children who are born here know nowhere else anyway, which becomes a huge problem if the asylum claim fails
    - Development of, or re-inforcement of, a group of people who are in the UK but not a part of the UK and who cannot really aspire to become part of mainstream society until their immigration status is sorted out
    - When decisions are finally made, the circumstances that led to the asylum claim in the first place are often so long in the past that it is difficult to make any sensible appraisal of them
    - The decision that someone does not qualify to remain is very much harder for people who have already been in the UK for years and who have established, therefore, some sort of life in the country (perhaps most severe in the case of children, as noted above)
I could go on and on, but you get the drift of my thinking there.

In more general terms, it seems absurd that a country such as the UK can't keep some sort of reasonable track of who is in the country and who isn't. There will, of course, always be people who circumvent the system or whom the system doesn't pick up for some reason, but it appears that the relevant authorities can't even talk sensibly about numbers of people, never mind who those people might be.

All of that is prospective, and doesn't really answer the question about what I think of an immigration amnesty. I can't say that I'm in favour of a wholesale amnesty. I do think that resources ought to be put into sorting out the present mess: that will take money, and personnel, of course; and some people's cases could be expedited. Which ones? Don't know exactly, but, for example, there are certain countries that would seem to me to prime candidates for enabling decisions to be made quickly. Some would say that the presence of children in a family ought to enable cases to be expedited. Some asylum claimants, if their cases were looked at properly, could probably be encouraged to apply to be dealt with under other provisions (though regulations might need to be amended for this to be possible). And so on.

That's of course all about asylum seekers. People who have never claimed asylum and are here outside the immigration laws (e.g. illegal entrants, overstayers) are a different group, and this is something that I have thought about less because I have had less personal involvement with people in this category. Of many of these people no record at all exists, of course, which adds to the problem.

What is needed, though, is an ability of someone to think 'outside the circle' - I am glad I am not charged with making policy! The answer might certainly include a partial amnesty (called that, or something else). For the future, a way of working needs to be found that is much more efficient, which would prevent a lot (not all, but a lot) of the problems that exist now from occurring again.

Sorry that's so long, and probably dull; it's not a full discussion of my views or thoughts, but I must away now

adindas
Member
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:04 pm

Post by adindas » Wed Apr 18, 2007 6:17 pm

Whatever we discuss here HO have made up their mind and Immigration ammesty is already ruled out as reported by BBC

Is not it a solid evidence which arguments have won in the public debate ?? :wink: :wink:

Make sure to keep your argument for at least 5 years, not now. It will probaly few people will convince by then.

I strongly suggest you counter all arguments that have been presented by "migrationwatchuk" :wink: :wink:

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/Briefin ... grants.asp

Their argument are based on research, it is non-profit organisation, not governmental org, they do not gain anything if their opinion is accepted. Not biased on personal opinion like most of you do here. :? :? :? :? I present you facts, news, you present personal opinion. Are you expert in this fields (professors, heeem ?????). :? :?

FYI immigration watch member are experts on immigration. Many of them are professors in this fields.

See their profile here:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/profile ... ouncil.asp
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/profiles.asp

Whoever win the next election, Labour, Conservative: John Reid or David Davies it is highly unlikely that the rule will change.

Adindas
Last edited by adindas on Wed Apr 18, 2007 10:18 pm, edited 7 times in total.

OL7MAX
Member of Standing
Posts: 466
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2006 6:22 pm

Post by OL7MAX » Wed Apr 18, 2007 7:59 pm

How do we know that a vast majority of the first generation immigrants are anti-new immigrants?
Speak to a few hundred of them and you'll find out. I have. The only exception seems to be when it comes to bringing their own kith and kin over. But feel free to propose an alternate view.

Christophe, that's a very sensible post and a well balanced position if I may say so. Thanks for taking the time. It seems we are in agreement on pretty much everything.

I agree that the time delays in deciding asylum claims are neither in the claimants' interests nor the UK's. It's incompetence at the HO that's largely responsible for these inordinate delays. I agree that it's absurd the UK can't keep track of who is in the country. I've commented before on the pathetic quality of border control. In this computer age the HO's lack of tracking departures (emmigration control) is nothing short of scandalous. I also agree that a wholesale amnesty is not going to happen and, in fact, it's not in Britain's interests. Blatant cheats, known terrorists etc. are some who should immediately be excluded from any proposed amnesty. We also seem to agree that laws by their nature are rigid and that occasionally a more realistic solution may need to be implemented to prevent natural injustices in the system. That could and should take the form of a partial amnesty for select groups of undocumented migrants. A wider and non-political look should then be applied as to which of the others it's in Britain's interest to regularise.

I'd like humanity to eventually achieve Dawie's countries without borders, but for now I think the above are fairly reasonable suggestions though I'm sure there'll be some who are horrified by them. Partial amnesty, indeed! How dare they even talk about such a thing?! All undocumented migrants are criminals and should be shoved off. Preferably from a cliff.
Is not it a solid evidence
No. Ever heard of U-turns? That's the other thing politicians are full of. ;)

Docterror
Senior Member
Posts: 950
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2006 10:30 pm
Location: Stoke-on-trent, UK
United Kingdom

Post by Docterror » Wed Apr 18, 2007 8:59 pm

OL7MAX wrote:Speak to a few hundred of them and you'll find out. I have. The only exception seems to be when it comes to bringing their own kith and kin over. But feel free to propose an alternate view.
Wow! you talked to a few hundred and the vast majority were against anti-new immigrants? You are surrounded by a lot of hate, aren't you?

The alternate view is that the vast majority are not as bad as you paint them to be, but it is just that the ones you came in contact with are...or even yet another alternative is that you are just "spicing" up the statistics.

For example, if someone was to come to me and tell that the moon is made of cheese, and that he has personally been there and asks me go find out for myself, do you think I will believe him? I would not believe it unless I have a source for the information that I find credible.

So, I think its just dumb for anyone to believe that the vast majority of the first generation immigrants are anti-new immigrant just because you say so.
Jabi

adindas
Member
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:04 pm

Post by adindas » Wed Apr 18, 2007 9:23 pm

Docterror

Majority of these peole who already use strong language and raise personal attack on you if you oppose their opinion will gain something, if the immigration ammesty was reversed. So their opinion is bias/skew.

I have suggested them to counter all arguments that have been presented by migratiowork.uk hope they will do this.

Adindas

Docterror
Senior Member
Posts: 950
Joined: Tue Dec 26, 2006 10:30 pm
Location: Stoke-on-trent, UK
United Kingdom

Post by Docterror » Wed Apr 18, 2007 9:50 pm

adindas wrote:Majority of these peole who already use strong language and raise personal attack on you if you oppose their opinion will gain something, if the immigration ammesty was reversed
I am sorry adindas, but I don't think that anyone here has raised a personal attack on me or has used strong language against me. And hypothetically speaking even if someone did, it is a reflection of their grace and culture and you meet such people in all walks of life let alone an internet forum. You just learn to keep you point of view and if they have a valid point, then I will accept it and just get along with life.

Also, even though I am not supportive of an amnesty, I really am not that averse to other ideas to include a lot of the categories that OL7MAX has put forth like an independant tribunal that decides every case on its own merit to make the HO give settlement to ones whom the tribunal sees fit; or formation of laws to fit in the categories like widows, grannies or small children or any other methods that appeals to my logic. The reason I would not support such an selective amnesty is not because I am entirely against it but rather because I do not see an amnesty as a permanent solution but rather as a stopgap.

So, as you can see, I have no bias or anything to gain.. but I do see a lot of what they are on about, and right now am only nit-picking on some of the mountains that has been made out of the mole-hill.
Jabi

adindas
Member
Posts: 130
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:04 pm

Post by adindas » Wed Apr 18, 2007 10:25 pm

Docterror wrote:
And hypothetically speaking even if someone did, it is a reflection of their grace and culture and you meet such people in all walks of life let alone an internet forum. You just learn to keep you point of view and if they have a valid point, then I will accept it and just get along with life.
.
Agree with you. But I am getting tired now and I personally will refer them to counter the argumentrs from the migrationwatch.uk

Hi mates, please visit their website and counter the arguments from migrationwatchuk.org

Source:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/Briefin ... grants.asp
An amnesty for illegal immigrants?

Summary
1. An amnesty for illegal immigrants in Britain should be rejected because:

- it is wrong in principle to reward illegal behaviour.
- amnesties have demonstrably failed in other EU countries and are strongly opposed by the French and German governments. In the past 20 years Italy has granted five amnesties and Spain six. The only effect has been growing numbers of applicants and increased pressure on the borders.
- they are extremely expensive for the tax payer. The IPPR claims ignored the additional costs. The net cost to the UK, on the basis of their own crude calculation, would be between 0.6 and 1 billion.
- Those granted amnesty would soon be replaced by others willing to work at or below the minimum wage.
- it would be much more effective to tighten access to the labour market and prevent fraudulent access to the welfare state.
- this would deter new arrivals and encourage illegal immigrants already here to return home.

2. A policy approach which made a serious effort to tighten up conditions for illegal immigrants in Britain would, over time, reduce the number coming here and encourage those already here to leave of their own accord.

Introduction
3. It is sometimes suggested that the way to deal with the growing number of illegal immigrants in the UK is to offer them an amnesty. This paper examines the experience of the UK and Europe and suggests an alternative approach.

The scale of the problem in the UK
4. Accurate numbers are, by definition, unobtainable but it is possible to estimate the order of magnitude. In January 2005 the Home Office issued a report which put the size of the illegal population of the UK at between 310,000 and 570,000 with a central estimate of 430,000. [1]

5. This estimate was based on the 2001 census and thus did not include the large number of asylum seekers whose applications were rejected in the years 2002 - 4. Nor did it include the UK born children of illegal immigrants.

6. Taking these two factors into account, Migrationwatch estimated that the population of unauthorised migrants in 2005 was in the range 515,000 - 870,000 with a central estimate of 670,000. However, other factors pointed towards the upper end of this range. [2]

Previous amnesties in the UK
7. In recent years there have been three amnesties in Britain [3], all of which applied to failed asylum seekers rather than to those who had entered illegally or overstayed their visas. In 1993/4 the Conservative Government granted "Exceptional Leave to Remain (ELR)" to 14,785 applicants involving 32,000 adults.[4] ELR has now been replaced by Humanitarian Protection and Discretionary Leave. Humanitarian Protection is granted when the asylum applicant does not qualify for refugee status under the terms of the UNCR but does qualify under the rather wider provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights. Discretionary Leave cases, on the other hand, are cases where the applicant does not qualify as a refugee under either convention. In practice, those granted either form of leave are almost invariably granted settlement eventually so that its grant can be regarded as, effectively, an amnesty. This amnesty was not revealed to the public at the time but will have become well known to the immigrant community and their lawyers.

8. In 1999/2000, the Labour Government granted Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) to 21,000 applicants involving 29,200 people altogether, under what was described as a "backlog clearance exercise". ILR is, effectively, settlement.

9. On 24 October 2003 the Government announced that ILR would be granted to those families which had sought asylum in the UK before 2 October 2000, had children before that date and who had experienced delays in the system. Those who had committed a criminal offence or lodged multiple asylum applications were excluded. The Government appears to have concluded that these applicants would have had grounds for appeal against removal on human rights grounds. They claimed that the amnesty would save taxpayers support costs and legal costs. Announcing the measure, Mr Blunkett said that it would involve 15,000 families but it was not known exactly how many adults and children would be covered [5].

10. The numbers involved turn out to be much larger. 53,435 cases were identified for consideration as at 31 March 2005 [6] . By the end of 2005, 70,135 applicants and dependants had been granted indefinite leave to remain (settlement) with 20,000 cases still to be decided [7].

11. In January 2004 the Home Affairs Select Committee of the House of Commons reviewed these amnesties and concluded that:[8]

Amnesties set up a vicious circle which should be broken by discouragement of unfounded claims, fast and efficient processing of those claims when made, and rapid removals when claims have failed.

The cost to the taxpayer
12. A person granted ILR is, by the same token, granted full access to the welfare state. This includes education, health, housing and welfare benefits. Once ILR has been granted the person can bring in further dependants and can also apply for citizenship after five years residence in the UK. Thus the apparently neutral term, Indefinite Leave to Remain, is in practice a bonanza for an illegal immigrant. The cost to the taxpayer is very substantial, offset to some extent by the contribution which the person concerned might make to the economy.

Experience in the EU
13. In their report to the Home Office on methods of sizing illegal populations, Professor John Salt and others examined the amnesties offered by EU countries over the past 20 years.[9] Belgium and Greece have implemented one amnesty each. France and Portugal have offered two amnesties. Italy has conducted five and Spain six amnesties with the following results:

Italy
1987/88 1990 1996 1998 2002
119,000 235,000 259,000 308,000 700,000

Spain
1985/86 1991 1996 2000 2001 2005
44,000 135,000 21,000 127,000 314,000 700,000

14. It will be apparent from the experience of Italy and Spain that granting amnesties certainly does not reduce the number of illegal immigrants. Indeed, it may very well encourage further illegal immigration. It is noteworthy that the Spanish enclaves in North Africa came under severe pressure shortly after the major Spanish amnesty in February 2004.

15. It is relevant to the UK that those granted amnesty in the EU will eventually obtain documents that will permit them to travel to Britain. In Spain, anyone who has held a resident permit for ten years can apply for Spanish nationality; for nationals of Latin American countries and the Philippines, the qualifying period is only two years.

16. The French have drawn their own conclusions. In May 2005, the then Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin said that further amnesties for illegal immigrants were "completely out of the question". He added that Paris considered that previous mass amnesties in France in 1981 and 1997 had encouraged further waves of illegal immigration.[10] Each of those amnesties was extended to about 150,000 applicants.

17. The Germans are also opposed to such amnesties. Germany's Interior Minister said on 9 October 2005 that "Wide ranging campaigns to legalise immigrants such as in Spain mean more illegal immigrants are drawn to Europe. In the long term, immigration and refugee problems cannot be solved with unilateral action, but only with European and international co-operation." [11]

The IPPR proposal
18. On 31 March 2006 the IPPR issued a paper calling for irregular migrants already in the UK to be issued with three year work permits and an ID card. Their families would be allowed to remain with them and they could seek further renewal provided that they learned English and had no criminal convictions. This procedure would lead to settlement (otherwise there would be little purpose in embarking on it) and it amounts to an amnesty in all but name.

19. It was claimed that this step would net the Treasury around 1bn a year. This claim is, to say the least, disingenuous. The figure is calculated on the assumption that, once regularised, illegals will earn on average 50% more than the minimum wage and it is a simple calculation of the income tax and NI contributions that would be paid as a result. This is in itself optimistic since some illegals may only be employed because they are willing to accept less than the minimum wage. However, it takes no account whatever of the extra costs to the Exchequer of an additional 0.5 million beneficiaries of the welfare state. The average cost of state benefits and services in 2003/4 was about 7,600 per head of population so on the IPPRs figure of 430,000 illegals the total cost would be 3.2 billion. Even assuming that half of these costs are already incurred (for example through use of emergency medical treatment) the additional cost of an amnesty would be 1.6 billion - well in excess of the additional tax and national insurance contributions calculated by the IPPR. Thus the net result would be an extra cost of 0.6 billion rather than a saving of 1 billion a result which accords with common sense. On the more realistic estimate of 670,000 illegals (para 5 above) the total cost would be 2.5 billion and the extra revenue about 1.5 billion with a net cost of 1 billion.

20. It was also claimed that 4.7 billion would be saved by not undertaking their forced removal. Nobody is suggesting such a course. One might just as well suggest that we can save 100 billion by not sending a man to the moon!

21. There are two major objections to the IPPR proposal. One is that it is wrong in principle to reward illegal behaviour. The other is that it has no chance of working. The report itself recognises that many illegals come to Britain and stay on to work illegally here because wage rates, even at or below the minimum wage, are much higher than in their home countries. For the same reason many come here with the help of people smugglers. There will always be unscrupulous employers willing to employ cheap labour so those regularised (at tax payers expense) will very soon be replaced by others.

Alternative approaches
22. The alternative to granting amnesties which simply encourage further illegal entry is to discourage illegal immigrants from coming and from staying. The key to this lies in the labour market since most illegal immigrants come initially to work and send money home. The record of enforcement in Britain is incredibly poor. In the period 1997 - 2003 only 9 employers were found guilty of employing an illegal immigrant. In 2004 only 3,332 illegal migrant workers were detected in Home Office operations. The Immigration, Asylum and Nationality Bill 2005 provides the Home Secretary with stronger powers to penalise employers who employ (knowingly or otherwise) individuals who are illegally in Britain. Immigration Officers will have the power to impose on the spot fines of up to 2,000 if the employer ought to have known or failed to ascertain that an employee was ineligible for work. Where it can be shown that an employer knowingly employed an illegal immigrant the maximum penalty will be two years imprisonment and/or a fine of up to 5,000. However, the effectiveness of this change in the law is undermined by the Governments admission that very few full time immigration officers will be dedicated to its enforcement.

23. A further incentive to illegal immigration is the absence of effective controls on access to the National Health Service. Furthermore, no checks whatever are made on the immigration status of children applying for places at schools. The introduction of ID cards will eventually mean that it will become much more difficult for illegal immigrants to access the welfare state. Furthermore, the introduction of embarkation controls, now planned by the government, will be an effective deterrent to overstaying provided that they are effectively enforced; this may require some adjustments to human rights law.

Conclusion
24. A policy approach which made a serious effort to tighten up conditions for illegal immigrants in Britain would, over time, reduce the number coming here and encourage those already here to leave of their own accord. American research suggests that such a policy of Attrition through enforcement can significantly reduce the size of the illegal population at reasonable cost [12]. An amnesty, on the other hand, simply makes a bad situation worse at considerable cost - as experience in Europe has amply demonstrated.

21 May 2006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTES: [1] Home Office online report 29/05 - "Sizing the unauthorised migrant population of the UK in 2001"
[2] www.migrationwatchuk.org Briefing paper 9.15 "The illegal migrant population in the UK"
[3] On 11 April 1974, the Home Secretary announced an amnesty for Commonwealth citizens and citizens of Pakistan who entered the country illegally on or after 9 March 1968 and before 1 January 1973. The amnesty applied also to people who were refused entry by an immigration officer and then entered the country illegally before 9 March 1968. Both classes of people could apply to have their position regularised and, if evidence of their entry and subsequent residence was satisfactory, their passports were endorsed by an immigration officer to give indefinite leave to remain.
The Home Secretary further announced on 29 November 1977 (Hansard 29.11.77, Written Answers cols 125-128) that Commonwealth citizens or citizens of Pakistan whose last entry had been secured by deception before 1 January 1973 could apply to have their stay regularised, and they were dealt with similarly. (source: IND web site).
[4] Statement by Mr Blunkett, Home Secretary, reported in The Guardian on 25 October 2003
[5] The Guardian 25 October 2003
[6] HOSB 13/05 paragraph 73.
[7] House of Commons written answer 58197 Feb 2006.
[8] Times online report 26 Jan 2004
[9] Home Office on-line report 58/04 Table 5.1
[10] The Guardian 12 May 2005
[11] Reuters, Berlin 9 Oct 2005, reported in the Mirror.
[12] The American report can be found on line at http://www.cis.org/articles/2006/back406.html




Adindas

OL7MAX
Member of Standing
Posts: 466
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2006 6:22 pm

Post by OL7MAX » Thu Apr 19, 2007 8:55 am

Wow! you talked to a few hundred
Yes, you meet people in business, in social situations, in the community, and they'd not call it hate but self-preservation. Adindas is a case in point. He, like many legal people in the UK, believes he benefits from reduction in further immigration. The more difficult immigration becomes the greater the "achievement" of those already past the "winning post". And I wouldn't be surprised if his views are that all "illegal immigrants" should be put on a plane. If you stand on a street corner tomorrow and post the question: What should the HO do if they can catch all illegal immigrants tomorrow? the sentiments will be that they should all be deported post haste. Why? Partly because people don't understand the shades of "illegal immigrants" and partly because of the "unfairness" of it all. It's perceived as more "unfair" by someone who feels he did it the hard way (and it is hard) and migrated legally.

Any other mountains I've created? :)
like widows, grannies or small children or any other methods that appeals to my logic
Logic, yes, that's the word! If only they'd ditch extremist views - or all views really - and appoint a non-political panel to research what's likely the smartest way forward. And sort out the complete dog's breakfast that's the Home Office.

Hernancortes
Junior Member
Posts: 60
Joined: Thu Mar 23, 2006 12:17 pm

Post by Hernancortes » Thu Apr 19, 2007 1:01 pm

adindas, since you keep cutting and pasting, i have decided to respond in kind.

Ten facts about irregular migration:

The scale of irregular migration can only be roughly estimated. The Home Office’s median estimate is 430,000 but they say the figure could be as high as 570,000 or low as 310,000. Their estimate is based on subtracting an estimate of the ‘legal’ foreign-born population from the total foreign born population recorded in the census.
Irregular migrants are people who are liable to be deported for issues related to immigration status. This includes people who entered by avoiding immigration inspection (often with the assistance of smugglers), who entered using false documents, who destroyed their passport or had it taken by an employer, who overstayed their visas or have otherwise violated their visa conditions (including students who work more than is allowed), who applied for asylum elsewhere or had their claim for asylum in the UK rejected.
The National Audit Office has estimated the cost of forcibly deporting an irregular migrant at £11,000 so it could cost up to £4.7billion to deport all those currently in Britain.
If irregular migrants were allowed to work legally, the potential taxes they would paid could be as high as £1billion per annum.
There is very little publicly available data about how migrants enter the UK, but it is likely that more overstay their visa than enter clandestinely.
Most irregular migrants will come from outside the European Union (EU) because EU nationals generally enjoy comprehensive entitlements to visit, live in and work in the UK.
Irregular migrants are thought to work in sectors that pay low wages and have high unmet demand for workers.
Policy options for managing irregular migration include better border controls, improved internal controls (like ID cards), increased opportunities for regular migration, clamping down on the informal economy, employer sanctions, removals, voluntary return and regularisation.
The USA has attempted to improve border controls but with only limited success, especially at the US-Mexico border. Employer sanctions and regularisation have also featured in the US strategy.
In 2005, Spain completed a large-scale regularisation programme. Several other Southern European countries (including Spain) have carried out regularisation in the past.
ippr’s analysis assumes that irregular migrants earn the same as the median wage of recently-arrived immigrants (£308 per week), which means a tax contribution of £4,791 per worker per year. Multiplying this by the estimated number of workers amongst the Home Office's median estimate of 430,000 irregular migrants means £1,038 billion per year in potential fiscal revenue. The Treasury’s Tax Ready Reckoner shows the cost of abolishing the starting rate of stamp duty or increasing the Child Tax Credit by £150 is around £1billion.

jes2jes
Senior Member
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2006 2:31 pm

Post by jes2jes » Thu Apr 19, 2007 1:59 pm

Adinas wrote:
Jes,I am naive how are you so sure about your knowledge superiority, I***ot !!!
I am not surprised by this because of your own admission to naivety with the above statement. Only an illiterate would go about using profanity and insults without judging the merit of whatever is written. I do not have time for people like you who think only in 'one dimension' and only based their arguments on Migration Watch's (MW) findings.

With all numbers you have posted to say that, the number of 'illegal immigrants' (although I detest the term and prefer Undocument Migrants) increase with every amnesty, you forget to think of the factors that cause this increase.

Do remember that globalisation and advancement in communication and transportation had made human movements easier and cheaper. Therefore numbers will increase yearly. Also, the population is not decreasing yearly but rather increasing and there is no way migration would as long as human beings continue to reproduce themselves. Last but not the least, Wars are increasing by the day. There are more wars today than ever before and therefore more people would be displaced worldwide who would seek shelter and security.

Amazingly, MW mentioned in its report that, granting amnesty to Illegals in other EU member states will cause the migrants to come to the UK. So what about amensties in the UK also causing people to move freely to the other member states?

The situation is not as simple as it sounds and it needs a proper approach (refer to my earlier post) because it is not going away anytime soon and the earlier we address it and move on, the better for the country as a whole.

Have a nice day!
Last edited by jes2jes on Fri Apr 20, 2007 12:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Praise The Lord!!!!

OL7MAX
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Post by OL7MAX » Thu Apr 19, 2007 2:20 pm

The Home Office’s median estimate is 430,000 but they say the figure could be as high as 570,000
The HO conveniently ignores dependents who add another 200,000 to that figure and those in limbo who add another 200-450,000. Students working more than the allowed hours etc should be added too. The true figure could be 1-1.5 million. And that's a big distortion of the economy. It was recently pointed out that the UK can't rely very much on the NAO figures because of the sheer scale of the undocumented workers. As NAO figures form the cornerstone of a lot of policy, budgets, and law it is imperative that something is done to make the figures more reliable. Given that undocumented migrants have no incentive for voluntary surrender monetary incentives should be provided ...or an amnesty one. The problem with monetary incentives is this: They'd need to be high enough to sound serious but below the £11,000 cost of finding and deporting each person. But even at £5,000 leaving the UK and coming back via a £1,000 people smuggler could become a lucrative business.

There are many who seem to agree here that certain compassionate cases should be considered outside of current law. I would add that a few more categories should be added to that if it's in the UK's long term interest. For example remove the restrictions under the 14 year rule to allow all over 14 years to get legal if they pass a stringent police check. Or maybe reduce that to 10 years if there is an economic advantage. Not all will agree and that's fine. British politicians don't always take decision in Britain's best interests.
...without judging the merit of whatever is written. I do not have time for people like you who think only in 'one dimension' and only based their arguments on Migration Watch's (MW) findings.
It's easier to rely on someone else's thoughts than to formulate some of your own. And if people like you don't slavish accept those thoughts as the unbiased truth it's ironic that it's your intelligence that's attacked! :)

Adindas' MW site quote starts with this:
1. An amnesty for illegal immigrants in Britain should be rejected because:

- it is wrong in principle to reward illegal behaviour.
LOL. If they've confused the term illegal immigrants with people who've done something illegal Adindas's favourite term applies: Idi*ts!

Edit reason: To correct typo
Last edited by OL7MAX on Thu Apr 19, 2007 4:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.

sakura
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Post by sakura » Thu Apr 19, 2007 4:27 pm

Just to add fuel to the fire: http://www.immigrationboards.com/viewtopic.php?t=14257 (refer to my last post)
So would these people be illegal entrants, overstayers or another such category?

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Post by OL7MAX » Thu Apr 19, 2007 4:50 pm

In cases where a bribe paid to an immigration officer secured an ILR I believe that the criminal act would need to be addressed first. Whether the ILR then holds is indeed a quandry. If it was an act that happened last week it may be treated different to one that transpired 50 years ago. But, as you say, there are lots of shades of grey.

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Post by Dawie » Thu Apr 19, 2007 5:40 pm

Hi mates, please visit their website and counter the arguments from migrationwatchuk.org

Source:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/Briefin ... grants.asp
An amnesty for illegal immigrants?
I might add that anyone who relies (solely) on facts and figures from a source as blatantly biased as Migration Watch loses a lot of credibility in my book.

If your arguments contained any original thought or ideas I would gladly entertain them, whether I agreed with them or not.
In a few years time we'll look back on immigration control like we look back on American prohibition in the thirties - futile and counter-productive.

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Post by Rawling » Fri Apr 20, 2007 11:11 am

Yes Home office have said there will be no amnesty. But they haven't come up with practical solution on how to be solve the problem. What they are doing is trying to ignore the problem. Therefore as long as problem is still here there will continue to be discussion.Basically there are 3 options 1. Offer amnesty, 2. Deport all the irregular immigrants 3. Ignore the problem (by that i mean half hearted measures to solve the problem.)

Their solution are to deport people which they say it will take 25 years. for 500,000 at a cost of 11,000 per person at the rate of 18,000 a year. Also make it more difficult for undocumented workers to obtain work and services. The really figure is said to be 1 million undocumented immigrants. So going with their estimation it means it will takes 50 years and 11 billion pound to deport the lot. By the time they have finish the cost will be at least 4 times of this estimate. You need also to count the cost in economically, politically, culturally. Cost to the families separated by their father, mother and children. taking British Born Children and deport them to the country they have never been before.

Other problem are difficult in planning for social services for government because they don't exact number of people in certain areas, increase exploitation, The economy will also need more young people to work in order to support increasingly numbers of pensioners.

What they should do with trying to improve borders control and tracking people they should also offer amnesty to get rid of a problem.

When did you hear migration watch says anything positive about immigrants? Show me a report which is balanced from migration watch. On the other hands think tanks like ippr (www.ippr.com) they normally produce a very well balance report proper research concerning various subjects including immigration and how to tackle problem of irregular immigrants.

It very well opposing amnesty but you need also to come up with practical, workable and realistic solution. Hatred, fear and divisions might be good reason to oppose amnesty but they don't offer any solution.

Soon or later people UK will have to deal with this issue. Because the problem will not go away. Regardless of what HO says the debate will continue because it concern large number of people life, economy etc.
adindas wrote:Whatever we discuss here HO have made up their mind and Immigration ammesty is already ruled out as reported by BBC

Is not it a solid evidence which arguments have won in the public debate ?? :wink: :wink:

Make sure to keep your argument for at least 5 years, not now. It will probaly few people will convince by then.

I strongly suggest you counter all arguments that have been presented by "migrationwatchuk" :wink: :wink:

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/Briefin ... grants.asp

Their argument are based on research, it is non-profit organisation, not governmental org, they do not gain anything if their opinion is accepted. Not biased on personal opinion like most of you do here. :? :? :? :? I present you facts, news, you present personal opinion. Are you expert in this fields (professors, heeem ?????). :? :?

FYI immigration watch member are experts on immigration. Many of them are professors in this fields.

See their profile here:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/profile ... ouncil.asp
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/profiles.asp

Whoever win the next election, Labour, Conservative: John Reid or David Davies it is highly unlikely that the rule will change.

Adindas

Rawling
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Post by Rawling » Fri Apr 20, 2007 11:27 am

Your post is addressing important issues and it show you are real thinking about practalities of solving the situation. But Amnesty will need to go further and wider in order to be effectively. I mean will have to include Overstayers, Failed asylum seekers, illegal entrants etc. By no means i support blanket amnesty by should be offered to all people who have been here long enough and after back police checks to exclude violent criminal, rapists, terrorists etc.
Christophe wrote:
OL7MAX wrote:Pray, what would your appraisal be?
Although not wishing to appear to duck out of the question entirely, I would preface any remarks by saying that the question is an extremely difficult one - as with most "problems", there is no easy answer, because if there were an easy answer the problem would go away.

In the long run, my biggest gripe about the immigration system in the UK as it relates to asylum seekers, which is the group that interests me most, is the enormous delays in the system. We are told that things are getting better, but are they? People who claim asylum sometimes have to wait years for final decisions to be made about their cases. This has a number of unwanted consequences, such as:
  • - Unnecessary stress (a 'soft' problem to the number crunchers, but a real one nonetheless and one with many knock-on consequences)
    - Opportunities for personal development (of many sorts, including but not limited to employment and career) are lost while people's lives are effectively partially 'on hold'; this has economic consequences (both personal and wider) and other consequences as well
    - Children who come to the UK grow up here and come to regard the UK as home, and of course children who are born here know nowhere else anyway, which becomes a huge problem if the asylum claim fails
    - Development of, or re-inforcement of, a group of people who are in the UK but not a part of the UK and who cannot really aspire to become part of mainstream society until their immigration status is sorted out
    - When decisions are finally made, the circumstances that led to the asylum claim in the first place are often so long in the past that it is difficult to make any sensible appraisal of them
    - The decision that someone does not qualify to remain is very much harder for people who have already been in the UK for years and who have established, therefore, some sort of life in the country (perhaps most severe in the case of children, as noted above)
I could go on and on, but you get the drift of my thinking there.

In more general terms, it seems absurd that a country such as the UK can't keep some sort of reasonable track of who is in the country and who isn't. There will, of course, always be people who circumvent the system or whom the system doesn't pick up for some reason, but it appears that the relevant authorities can't even talk sensibly about numbers of people, never mind who those people might be.

All of that is prospective, and doesn't really answer the question about what I think of an immigration amnesty. I can't say that I'm in favour of a wholesale amnesty. I do think that resources ought to be put into sorting out the present mess: that will take money, and personnel, of course; and some people's cases could be expedited. Which ones? Don't know exactly, but, for example, there are certain countries that would seem to me to prime candidates for enabling decisions to be made quickly. Some would say that the presence of children in a family ought to enable cases to be expedited. Some asylum claimants, if their cases were looked at properly, could probably be encouraged to apply to be dealt with under other provisions (though regulations might need to be amended for this to be possible). And so on.

That's of course all about asylum seekers. People who have never claimed asylum and are here outside the immigration laws (e.g. illegal entrants, overstayers) are a different group, and this is something that I have thought about less because I have had less personal involvement with people in this category. Of many of these people no record at all exists, of course, which adds to the problem.

What is needed, though, is an ability of someone to think 'outside the circle' - I am glad I am not charged with making policy! The answer might certainly include a partial amnesty (called that, or something else). For the future, a way of working needs to be found that is much more efficient, which would prevent a lot (not all, but a lot) of the problems that exist now from occurring again.

Sorry that's so long, and probably dull; it's not a full discussion of my views or thoughts, but I must away now

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Post by Dawie » Fri Apr 20, 2007 11:32 am

An amnesty would be great and I support a full and unconditional one, but it fails to take into consideration the root cause of the problem....draconian and unenforcable immigration laws. Until more sensible, realistic and humane immigration laws are put into place, an amnesty will only be a short-term solution.
In a few years time we'll look back on immigration control like we look back on American prohibition in the thirties - futile and counter-productive.

OL7MAX
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Post by OL7MAX » Fri Apr 20, 2007 11:34 am

But Amnesty will need to go further and wider in order to be effectively
I agree. But because of the strong feeling against what is all bundled together as "illegal immigrants" it's politically prudent to first highlight the special categories I've pointed out earlier. Once people see through the term "illegal immigrant" they may be more willing to see logic, sensible debate or the merits of appointing an expert group to recommend solutions.

In the longer term - and prior to moving to Dawie's borderless world - the UK may want to take the intermediate step of visa-free travel and migration between the UK and developed countries like Japan, South Korea etc (mind you, it may not be a UK decision anymore and may need to be taken EU wide).

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Post by Rawling » Mon Apr 23, 2007 3:28 pm

Yes OL7MAX i agree that might be good place to start. I also think people on the government need to tell the truth about the scale and nature of the problem. What realistics options are available to them. Once they do that mature discussion can be conducted on how to deal with the problem.

I also agree with Dawie sentiment.

Soon or later the problem will have to be dealt with. They can't postpone it indefinetely.

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Post by Dawie » Mon Apr 23, 2007 3:50 pm

Whenever I see Liam Byrne and John Reid stand in front of a TV camera and blatantly lie to the British public about immigration it makes me mad! Promising things like the deportation of every single illegal immigrant in the UK, while anyone who bothers to do the sums can see that it would take the GDP of a small country to achieve that particular aim. Promising to stop all illegal work in an economy that quite simply cannot survive without illegal workers. Sometimes I get the feeling that John Reid and Liam Byrne don't even believe what comes out of their own mouths.

If ever there was an issue that required a completely non-political and impartial approach in how it is dealt with, it is the issue of immigration. It's all very well saying the "majority" of the British public want stricter immigration controls or tighter control over immigrants, but just because the majority of a population supports something, doesn't mean it is morally right. The Germans for the most part supported Nazism, and we would all agree that was reprehensible. Sometimes a brave individual needs to stand up and say "Enough! This is madness. You are wrong". Unfortunately we haven't seen a politician with the guts to stand up and make an argument for immigration yet and I doubt we will for quite some time. There isn't a single politician in Westminster with any sort of backbone and there hasn't been for quite sometime.
In a few years time we'll look back on immigration control like we look back on American prohibition in the thirties - futile and counter-productive.

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Post by OL7MAX » Mon Apr 23, 2007 3:55 pm

There isn't a single politician in Westminster with any sort of backbone and there hasn't been for quite sometime.
So we can't really blame the people of the UK for the politicians they've elected? ;)

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