Restricted COS decisions for July 2015

[shannon5g]

Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.

Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.

[didi_tier2]

Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.

Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.

Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.

I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.

If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x

[danielmtpbr]

Hello all.
I am reading other people statements and I can't help getting emotional and thinking about my current situation. What we are going through is a complete disrespect, to say the least. The UK point based system is a joke that is keeping those brilliant people out.

I want to share my good thoughts and sympathy to all that are going through this anxiety and stress. Tonight I will be praying for all of you.

Let's keep positive - if this is something that you really want, keep confident and let's look for alternatives. A couple of months more will not kill our dreams.

Good luck to all of us.

[shannon5g]

Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.

Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.

Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.

I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.

If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x

The UK govt set this scoring system to limit immigration to its political target, so they do not care at all what the immigrants would feel. They set the minimum at 32 to limit low paid workers, not because they want everyone over 32 to come. They do not feel they have the responsibility to take care of all the applications. On the contrary, they are happy to see the burden is shifted to the companies, which will force them to back out and follow the govt's further tightened immigration policy.

[didi_tier2]

Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.

Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.

Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.

I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.

If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x

The UK govt set this scoring system to limit immigration to its political target, so they do not care at all what the immigrants would feel. They set the minimum at 32 to limit low paid workers, not because they want everyone over 32 to come. They do not feel they have the responsibility to take care of all the applications. On the contrary, they are happy to see the burden is shifted to the companies, which will force them to back out and follow the govt's further tightened immigration policy.

I never said they cared about our feelings but about the fact they will have a huge backlog. It takes a long time to change policies, and these are the ones they have implemented. Regardless, these are just our thoughts...no one really knows what's gonna happen.

[shannon5g]

The fact that they are hurrying raising the salary threshold in Autumn shows that they want to get rid of applicants with lower pay. Anyway the MAC review is going to come out on 21 July, and let's wait and see whether the minimum salary is to be raised to 50% distribution or 75%, or any other percentage. I am not entirely sure whether the govt will follow exactly to MAC's advice this time though, and I suspect that no matter what MAC says, the govt will raise the salary anyway to at least 50% for experienced rate and 25% for new-entrant rate.

[ks227]

Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.

Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.

Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.

I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.

If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x

Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. (Please explain this figures how did you get exact number of applications for June and July , HO never publishes the number of application for particular points) ?

[shannon5g]

Thanks everyone who wished us good luck, but I have to say, wishes are just wishes. Let's face the reality.

Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September.

Thanks for sharing your prediction, it's nice to see what people are thinking - I've been trying to have a grasp for next month's as well. We all know how disappointing it is to barely sleep due to the anxiety of the potential 'refused'.
Don't you think that because they set the minimum at 32 from the beginning they need a way to start taking care of their backlog? My thought process is that if they keep it at 45 or 50, they won't be doing themselves any good as the backlog will only get greater. I am praying that they are trying to slowly reduce it to 40 then 37, 36 etc all the way down to 32.

I am at 40 myself and literally can't stop thinking about how ridiculous all of this is. I have been refused for the second time again and I am so sorry for those who are on the same boat. Congrats to those who got it - I am truly happy for you because this is a nightmare.

If anyone finds any statistics or predictions PLEASE share it here. Thanks so much everyone for sharing the info and your thoughts so far. If you have come this far you deserve it, we all do. Let's keep fighting. x

Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. (Please explain this figures how did you get exact number of applications for June and July , HO never publishes the number of application for particular points) ?

1215=50+ in June
1943=50+ in July + 45 new in July + 45 reapplied from June
I assume everyone at 45 rejected in June reapplied in July, so 1215+1943=45+ in June and July
Does that make sense?

[ITConsultant2015]

anyone still waiting for PWC legal to get back to them?

[ITConsultant2015]

Anyone still waiting to hear from pwc legal?

I am still waiting

[Monika_tyagi]

Anyone still waiting to hear from pwc legal?

I am still waiting

Still waiting....

[ks227]

1215=50+ in June
1943=50+ in July + 45 new in July + 45 reapplied from June
I assume everyone at 45 rejected in June reapplied in July, so 1215+1943=45+ in June and July
Does that make sense?[/quote]

they are total number of RCoS granted (Including exceptional consideration + Croatians Nation ) but yeah we can look at this as an average indication. The only thing i want to add up that it assumes that hiring in UK still at that peak level as it was in June and July (and remember June and July are peak hiring periods and those selected in June July start work in August and September therefore August September are peak starting dates) , means it is likely the trends of hiring should stop or slow down by now that could result in demands for RCoS going down in RCoS which means higher chances for 32-40 where 40 seems optimistic.

[ktyagi]

I agree with KS227, won't this period also coincide with the fact that majority of people graduate from universities and are applying for jobs?

[ks227]

I agree with KS227, won't this period also coincide with the fact that majority of people graduate from universities and are applying for jobs?

Yes, Most student graduates in June July in England, I graduated in July myself , But that's the thing students do not apply for job when they graduate they apply months before and most get their decision even before they graduate with starting dates in August September. If starting dates are in August September it is obvious they will make an application for RCoS in June July respectively. That is my reasoning behind why June July are peak periods for RCoS applications. And the current trends we are seeing is not permanent. I hope i am right.

[ktyagi]

That makes sense to me. But, there is one more thing, if I understand correctly then the total quota of rCoS is equally divided every month. If the demand is going to be so high in June-July-August, then we can expect the authorities to notice this and adjust the per-month quota accordingly. I think Switzerland already does it like this.

[winteriscoming]

I agree with KS227, won't this period also coincide with the fact that majority of people graduate from universities and are applying for jobs?

Yes, Most student graduates in June July in England, I graduated in July myself , But that's the thing students do not apply for job when they graduate they apply months before and most get their decision even before they graduate with starting dates in August September. If starting dates are in August September it is obvious they will make an application for RCoS in June July respectively. That is my reasoning behind why June July are peak periods for RCoS applications. And the current trends we are seeing is not permanent. I hope i am right.

But is it not true that Students on a Tier 4 visa, applying to switch to a Tier 2 visa don't need an RCoS ?
I thought RCoS was only for out of country applications.

[ktyagi]

I agree with KS227, won't this period also coincide with the fact that majority of people graduate from universities and are applying for jobs?

Yes, Most student graduates in June July in England, I graduated in July myself , But that's the thing students do not apply for job when they graduate they apply months before and most get their decision even before they graduate with starting dates in August September. If starting dates are in August September it is obvious they will make an application for RCoS in June July respectively. That is my reasoning behind why June July are peak periods for RCoS applications. And the current trends we are seeing is not permanent. I hope i am right.

But is it not true that Students on a Tier 4 visa, applying to switch to a Tier 2 visa don't need an RCoS ?
I thought RCoS was only for out of country applications.

OK! that I am not sure. I am on a Tier 4 DES Visa, and have recently been given CoS reference number that I am required to fill in the Visa app form. However, I am not sure if it was rCoS or not!

[winteriscoming]

Restricted certificates
These are for:

Tier 2 (General) workers currently abroad who’ll be paid less than £153,500 a year
family members (dependants) of Tier 4 migrants

https://www.gov.uk/uk-visa-sponsorship- ... rtificates

Tier 4 Students almost certainly get Unrestricted CoS allocated to them, on which there is no monthly limit.
Hence, graduates would not be part of the June & July peak demands witnessed, although they are still probably the busiest hiring months.

[ffffpq]

1215=50+ in June
1943=50+ in July + 45 new in July + 45 reapplied from June
I assume everyone at 45 rejected in June reapplied in July, so 1215+1943=45+ in June and July
Does that make sense?

they are total number of RCoS granted (Including exceptional consideration + Croatians Nation ) but yeah we can look at this as an average indication. The only thing i want to add up that it assumes that hiring in UK still at that peak level as it was in June and July (and remember June and July are peak hiring periods and those selected in June July start work in August and September therefore August September are peak starting dates) , means it is likely the trends of hiring should stop or slow down by now that could result in demands for RCoS going down in RCoS which means higher chances for 32-40 where 40 seems optimistic.[/quote]

This is exactly what I thought. People scoring 40 or nearly 40 may stand a chance of getting their cos granted in the next month or at least in the coming two or three months. But it's still up to their employers to decide whether they will keep reapplying and this is what I'm worrying about. I think most of applicants especially graduates would start working in Sept which leaves them one more chance to go. And if we were right about the trends, the demand in Sept and months after Sept might go back to normal but I was wondering if employers would reapply since it's late for their start date .

[ktyagi]

Tier 4 Students almost certainly get Unrestricted CoS allocated to them, on which there is no monthly limit.
Hence, graduates would not be part of the June & July peak demands witnessed, although they are still probably the busiest hiring months.

Darn!! I have been worrying un-necessarily over the last 2 months. Well as a positive side effect, I followed this forum and that really is very useful to educate oneself about the situation.

[GettingTier2]

Tier 4 Students almost certainly get Unrestricted CoS allocated to them, on which there is no monthly limit.
Hence, graduates would not be part of the June & July peak demands witnessed, although they are still probably the busiest hiring months.

Darn!! I have been worrying un-necessarily over the last 2 months. Well as a positive side effect, I followed this forum and that really is very useful to educate oneself about the situation.

Well I believe Tier 4 DES is for PhD students right?

You should be fine as long as you apply in the UK.

[ktyagi]

Yes, it seems that it will be ok, except that I will be under debt to manage payment of the unreasonably monstrous Visa application fees and IHS surcharge (~5k) for my wife and me.

[danielmtpbr]

Anyone still waiting to hear from pwc legal?

I am still waiting

Still waiting....

Me too. Still waiting!

[Mattyhazza]

Just wondering, Does anyone know if it is possible to meet the RLMT requirements without advertising on Jobcentre Plus Universal Jobmatch service? I'm not sure if my work has done it and they refuse to talk to a consultant. So Frustrating

[ks227]

Just wondering, Does anyone know if it is possible to meet the RLMT requirements without advertising on Jobcentre Plus Universal Jobmatch service? I'm not sure if my work has done it and they refuse to talk to a consultant. So Frustrating

It does not have to be on JobCentre , Employers can advertise on their own career website , In My case Job is advertise on my Employer's career website and my RLMT is completed.


Here is the link for further clarification

http://www.workpermit.com/uk/tier-2-vis ... t-test.htm