Re: Restricted COS decisions for August 2015

[ks227]

So do you think it's really I unlikely people with 37 will go through?

Here is my analysis

One
The June and July are always peak (because people start work in August and September)

The August and September are not peak (Because less people start work in October and November )

That means there is chances that points in August goes back to normal

Two

The back log for 45+ from June + new application of 45+ in July were all granted RCoS , that leaves us with no backlog of 45+ for August, this means the applications below 45+ have fair chances for selection in August.

Three

There will be a huge backlog of 40 points application from June July and new application for august altogether to be considered in August (assuming everyone will reapply) , this means cut off point can go 35-40 and back to 32 again in September

Outcome should fall in one of these three analysis , and I hope it is case one and two so everyone gets a fair chance.

Assumptions : everyone is going to re-apply , Employers are still recruiting , same number of phd/shortage occupation applying again in August etc.

What do you think ?

[ks227]

Hi Hannah,

There were more than 197 applications that scored 40 points in July, which is the next salary bracket that will be considered for allocation of CoS after the applications at 45 points have been granted (and not 44 - 32 ).

You are right more than 197 that scored 40 points in July , let's assume it's double that is it was around 400. So that 400 people (assumption) + new at 40 going to apply in August, what do you think that leaves that chances for 40 in August ?

[Hannah1990]

After reading what you said I feel a lot better to be honest because I don't think everyone will reapply, plus this is something that hasn't happened for over 3 years so it needs to level out somewhere and hopefully that will be august because it's already gone down from 50 to 45 so hopefully taking into account less people applying the back log being cleared up a bit it will make room for the applications with less than 45 points! That's what I am praying for.....

[ks227]

After reading what you said I feel a lot better to be honest because I don't think everyone will reapply, plus this is something that hasn't happened for over 3 years so it needs to level out somewhere and hopefully that will be august because it's already gone down from 50 to 45 so hopefully taking into account less people applying the back log being cleared up a bit it will make room for the applications with less than 45 points! That's what I am praying for.....

Yes, plus we are assuming that number of students with phd remains same (which is unlikely) + assuming that shortage occupation sector is still hiring as aggressively as it was in May , June and July (which is unlikely) , it does looks optimistic but this policy is put in place to make things uncertain and this is what is happening ! these intellect of these policies makers is beyond any decent contemplation.

[Hannah1990]

Yeah I agree I actually feel a lot better now thinking about it I think it is going to be fine for august, I think it will jump back down to normal so that everyone has a fair
Chance

[shub9]

Dear All,

Has anyone requested their employer to revise the salary for August consideration and what will the employer do incase RCoS request gets rejected in August also?

Many Thanks,

[shub9]

Dear All,

Has anyone requested their employer to revise the salary for August consideration and what will the employer do incase RCoS request gets rejected in August also?

Many Thanks,

[2015offer]

Dear All,

Has anyone requested their employer to revise the salary for August consideration and what will the employer do incase RCoS request gets rejected in August also?

Many Thanks,

I guess it depends on the employer.

Please shed some lights on this if anyone had any information

[didi_tier2]

My employer and I have applied for my tier 2 in june and july with 40 points with no success, as we all know the minimum scores were 50 and 45, respectively. Since to increase our points we would have to perform a new RLMT with a higher salary, we have advertised the job in two sources again with a higher salary putting us at 45 for September, but will try again for August with 40 points with the same application we've had for the past two months. Our hopes are that August will work out, but if not, HOPEFULLY by September the points will have gone back down and 45 points will be more than enough.

Good luck to all of us - this process has been a nightmare.

[ks227]

My employer and I have applied for my tier 2 in june and july with 40 points with no success, as we all know the minimum scores were 50 and 45, respectively. Since to increase our points we would have to perform a new RLMT with a higher salary, we have advertised the job in two sources again with a higher salary putting us at 45 for September, but will try again for August with 40 points with the same application we've had for the past two months. Our hopes are that August will work out, but if not, HOPEFULLY by September the points will have gone back down and 45 points will be more than enough.

Good luck to all of us - this process has been a nightmare.

Hi

same here , Stuck at 40 points, never been the case since the policy is implemented and now all of sudden this spike , I applied in July and refused. Re-applying in August and hoping it goes back to normal.

Anyone here with any sort of analysis/article information predicting points for August?

Thanks and Good luck !

[didi_tier2]

My employer and I have applied for my tier 2 in june and july with 40 points with no success, as we all know the minimum scores were 50 and 45, respectively. Since to increase our points we would have to perform a new RLMT with a higher salary, we have advertised the job in two sources again with a higher salary putting us at 45 for September, but will try again for August with 40 points with the same application we've had for the past two months. Our hopes are that August will work out, but if not, HOPEFULLY by September the points will have gone back down and 45 points will be more than enough.

Good luck to all of us - this process has been a nightmare.

Hi

same here , Stuck at 40 points, never been the case since the policy is implemented and now all of sudden this spike , I applied in July and refused. Re-applying in August and hoping it goes back to normal.

Anyone here with any sort of analysis/article information predicting points for August?

Thanks and Good luck !

I've been looking for things everyday on twitter and on here. Hopefully we will have something to calm the anxiety until the 11th! Good luck to you. I hope with all my heart we get it this time! x

[tier2sp]

I think the cutoff will be 40 - 45 due to backlog from June and it will depend on demand from phd/shortage occupation as well as the amount of applicants within the 40 points bracket...fingers crossed for all of us.

[ff88]

My employer and I have applied for my tier 2 in june and july with 40 points with no success, as we all know the minimum scores were 50 and 45, respectively. Since to increase our points we would have to perform a new RLMT with a higher salary, we have advertised the job in two sources again with a higher salary putting us at 45 for September, but will try again for August with 40 points with the same application we've had for the past two months. Our hopes are that August will work out, but if not, HOPEFULLY by September the points will have gone back down and 45 points will be more than enough.

Good luck to all of us - this process has been a nightmare.

can u please share methods of . advertising used and cost incurred ?

[ks227]

I think the cutoff will be 40 - 45 due to backlog from June and it will depend on demand from phd/shortage occupation as well as the amount of applicants within the 40 points bracket...fingers crossed for all of us.

the backlog of 45 points from June and new application at 45 points in July is cleared and RCoS were granted to all those who had 45 points in July , that means there are only new application of 45 points in August + backlog of 40 points from june july+ new application at point 40 in August, that leaves balanced chance for cut-off starting from 35-40 , Just a thought.

[tier2sp]

I think the cutoff will be 40 - 45 due to backlog from June and it will depend on demand from phd/shortage occupation as well as the amount of applicants within the 40 points bracket...fingers crossed for all of us.

the backlog of 45 points from June and new application at 45 points in July is cleared and RCoS were granted to all those who had 45 points in July , that means there are only new application of 45 points in August + backlog of 40 points from june july+ new application at point 40 in August, that leaves balanced chance for cut-off starting from 35-40 , Just a thought.

yes, that's the hope but it really depends how many of us with 40 points there are (backlog from June) and whether there are enough CoS to cover all of us after covering new applicants for phd/shortage occupation and new applications >40 points this month. the fact that there is only 97 CoS being carried over this month also makes me anxious.

[ff88]

I think the cutoff will be 40 - 45 due to backlog from June and it will depend on demand from phd/shortage occupation as well as the amount of applicants within the 40 points bracket...fingers crossed for all of us.

the backlog of 45 points from June and new application at 45 points in July is cleared and RCoS were granted to all those who had 45 points in July , that means there are only new application of 45 points in August + backlog of 40 points from june july+ new application at point 40 in August, that leaves balanced chance for cut-off starting from 35-40 , Just a thought.

not everyone who got their rcos rejected in june and july will apply again in August. Many employers would have filled their vacancies. Lets hope everyone gets their rcos in August.

yes, that's the hope but it really depends how many of us with 40 points there are (backlog from June) and whether there are enough CoS to cover all of us after covering new applicants for phd/shortage occupation and new applications >40 points this month. the fact that there is only 97 CoS being carried over this month also makes me anxious.

[ks227]

Yes and here is another analysis i found on another thread , I will just quote that below


"Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September."


Sighs !

[ff88]

Yes and here is another analysis i found on another thread , I will just quote that below


"Based on my analysis, I estimate the cut off for next month will be 45 again. Here is my logic:
There are only 1747 COS's available in August.
Number of applications scoring 45+ for June and July is 1215+1943= 3158, with an average of 1579. Assuming that to be the figure for August, this will leave only 168 slots availabe for 40.
Hopefully the number for August will improve, so let's say the applications scoring 45+ are as few as 1000+ in August, leaving 700 slots for 40. 700 seems to be a nice number, but don't forget that the total number of 40 in August would be an accumlation of June, July, and August, and would be easily over 1000 or even 1500.
As a result, the minimum score for August will be 45 again and the 700 slots will be carried over to September."


Sighs !

yes but at the same time june july is peak time for jobs due to september graduate roles. And many companies may have filled their unfilled vacancies. Lets hope for the best.

[cstylishsam]

CoS Allocation in June was for 50 points and above hence the number is 1215 ( I would freeze this number and expect the demand to be this high for 50 points and above, although this looks unlikely)

CoS allocation in July is 1943 which means that there are 728 (1943-1215) applications of 45 points. These 728 are accumulation of June rejects and July fresh applicants.

We know that there were 397 CoS carried to July from previous month. I would add 100 to this number as a max out of month allocation that would leave us with 497 possible (assuming all rejects reapplied ) application in the month of June for 45 points.

Now deducting 728 - 497 = 231 are fresh applicants that scored 45 in the month of July i.e less than half that applied in June ( this is a positive sign as the demand for CoS for 45 points decreased in July and i pray this should be the trend)


Now assuming we again see a similar figure of 231 application at 45 points applying in Aug ( note : all 45 point backlog is cleared in July )

we get 1215 (50 points and greater) + 231 (45 points) = 1446 CoS at 45 points and above

Now remaining CoS are 1747 (Available in Aug) +100(max out of month allocation) - 1446 (CoS at 45 points and above) = 401


401 CoS are available for 40 points. If CoS at 40 are more than 401 then these CoS will be carried to next month. I guess this would be the case as applications at 40 points will be atleast or close to 500 ( June+July+August).

My guess 45 points again this month. Even if there is an unexpected demand at 45 points there is a buffer of 401 CoS that can be utilised

Future looks uncertain. Hope the coming months pull the demand down to 32.

[ks227]

CoS Allocation in June was for 50 points and above hence the number is 1215 ( I would freeze this number and expect the demand to be this high for 50 points and above, although this looks unlikely)

CoS allocation in July is 1943 which means that there are 728 (1943-1215) applications of 45 points. These 728 are accumulation of June rejects and July fresh applicants.

We know that there were 397 CoS carried to July from previous month. I would add 100 to this number as a max out of month allocation that would leave us with 497 possible (assuming all rejects reapplied ) application in the month of June for 45 points.

Now deducting 728 - 497 = 231 are fresh applicants that scored 45 in the month of July i.e less than half that applied in June ( this is a positive sign as the demand for CoS for 45 points decreased in July and i pray this should be the trend)


Now assuming we again see a similar figure of 231 application at 45 points applying in Aug ( note : all 45 point backlog is cleared in July )

we get 1215 (50 points and greater) + 231 (45 points) = 1446 CoS at 45 points and above

Now remaining CoS are 1747 (Available in Aug) +100(max out of month allocation) - 1446 (CoS at 45 points and above) = 401


401 CoS are available for 40 points. If CoS at 40 are more than 401 then these CoS will be carried to next month. I guess this would be the case as applications at 40 points will be atleast or close to 500 ( June+July+August).

My guess 45 points again this month. Even if there is an unexpected demand at 45 points there is a buffer of 401 CoS that can be utilised

Future looks uncertain. Hope the coming months pull the demand down to 32.

You are right , plus you being generous with number of applications at 40 in August , I suppose that would be way more that 400, even if i assume 250 each month that would leave us with a total of 250x 3 (June, july and August at 40) = 750 application for point 40 in August.

But good news is that you have frezzed 50+ points application at 1215 but june was exceptionally peak we know that , demand has never been this higher and also june july fills the starting date for September. Therefore we can expect 50+ applications coming down by a large margin giving chances for 40 and below backlog to be cleared.

[cstylishsam]

CoS Allocation in June was for 50 points and above hence the number is 1215 ( I would freeze this number and expect the demand to be this high for 50 points and above, although this looks unlikely)

CoS allocation in July is 1943 which means that there are 728 (1943-1215) applications of 45 points. These 728 are accumulation of June rejects and July fresh applicants.

We know that there were 397 CoS carried to July from previous month. I would add 100 to this number as a max out of month allocation that would leave us with 497 possible (assuming all rejects reapplied ) application in the month of June for 45 points.

Now deducting 728 - 497 = 231 are fresh applicants that scored 45 in the month of July i.e less than half that applied in June ( this is a positive sign as the demand for CoS for 45 points decreased in July and i pray this should be the trend)


Now assuming we again see a similar figure of 231 application at 45 points applying in Aug ( note : all 45 point backlog is cleared in July )

we get 1215 (50 points and greater) + 231 (45 points) = 1446 CoS at 45 points and above

Now remaining CoS are 1747 (Available in Aug) +100(max out of month allocation) - 1446 (CoS at 45 points and above) = 401


401 CoS are available for 40 points. If CoS at 40 are more than 401 then these CoS will be carried to next month. I guess this would be the case as applications at 40 points will be atleast or close to 500 ( June+July+August).

My guess 45 points again this month. Even if there is an unexpected demand at 45 points there is a buffer of 401 CoS that can be utilised

Future looks uncertain. Hope the coming months pull the demand down to 32.

You are right , plus you being generous with number of applications at 40 in August , I suppose that would be way more that 400, even if i assume 250 each month that would leave us with a total of 250x 3 (June, july and August at 40) = 750 application for point 40 in August.

But good news is that you have frezzed 50+ points application at 1215 but june was exceptionally peak we know that , demand has never been this higher and also june july fills the starting date for September. Therefore we can expect 50+ applications coming down by a large margin giving chances for 40 and below backlog to be cleared.

My figures above are based on worst possible scenario which indicates that applications scoring a min of 45 points may be successful

I am seriously hoping that there is less demand in Aug than i have anticipated and that the min points crash to 32 this time . I would highly appreciated if you can please point to the source which confirms that the June and July are high. i would like to take these factors into consideration while analyzing data as i fail to understand the spike last month.

[ks227]

The spike in summer times is analysied by the previous years data from archived UKVI RCoS Data, someone in the July RCoS thread has posted links and graphs for that data indicating April , june and july as peak trends usually.

[cstylishsam]

The spike in summer times is analysied by the previous years data from archived UKVI RCoS Data, someone in the July RCoS thread has posted links and graphs for that data indicating April , june and july as peak trends usually.

I remember seeing that.

[ks227]

The spike in summer times is analysied by the previous years data from archived UKVI RCoS Data, someone in the July RCoS thread has posted links and graphs for that data indicating April , june and july as peak trends usually.

I remember seeing that.

I am assuming that you are at 40 points.

Also , did you notice , the number of people posting in July RCOS were many times than the users posting here in August RCoS (Could be an indicator less people applying in August) ah the things I am looking at to comfort myself lol

[cstylishsam]

The spike in summer times is analysied by the previous years data from archived UKVI RCoS Data, someone in the July RCoS thread has posted links and graphs for that data indicating April , june and july as peak trends usually.

I remember seeing that.

I am assuming that you are at 40 points.

Also , did you notice , the number of people posting in July RCOS were many times than the users posting here in August RCoS (Could be an indicator less people applying in August) ah the things I am looking at to comfort myself lol

I am at 45... Reapplying this month. Last month application had a problem with respect to salary advertised.